Abstract
Recently water crisis in the Middle East is rising. Diminishing of recourses which are increasingly affected by pollution, population growth and agricultural/industrial projects has increased the strategic significance of water politics in the region. Since that, for Middle Eastern nations water is becoming a catalyst for conflict, and thus water became a concern of national security of the local nations. So as water increasing capacity to reshape the nation's relations, the success of future efforts to address water sharing and distribution between neighboring states will drive political and strategic approaches to this retreating natural resource.
Crisis approaching: Water Resources in the Middle East
Water resources in the Middle East are dropping. While Middle East represents 5% of the world's total population, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region combined contains only 0.9% of the universal water resources.1 Looking back to the water-scare countries in the Middle East and North Africa, the number has risen from 3 in 1955 (Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan) to 11 by 1990 (including Algeria, Tunisia, Somalia, Israel and the Occupied Territories, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Yemen). By 2025 another 7 countries would join the list (Ethiopia, Egypt, Libya, Iran, Oman, Morocco, and Syria).
untitled.JPG
Figure : Renewable resource per capita in the MENA region
Scarcity of water resources is not only the problem in the Middle East, much of the Middle Eastern water branches are from three major watercourses: Nile and Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates river systems. The reliance on these resources has made water a major contributor for conflict. That was clearly shown by the 1967 war where Syria attempted to divert water from Israel and in the Iran-Iraq War which erupted on the reason of water claims and availability. On the other hand the recognition of the water's role as an obstacle in state relations in the Middle East region urged many attempts to resolutions that included diplomatic efforts and signing agreements such as the "Agreement for the Full Utilization of Nile Waters to the 1994 Israeli-Jordanian Treaty".
Reasons behind water shortage in the Middle East
Despite these agreements, Middle Eastern States have begun to come into clash again over water supply. The major contributor behind this rising clash is the natural scarceness of regional supplies driven by several factors that include:
With the highest population rates in the world, Middle Eastern states are consuming water at higher rates that can be refilled naturally. With estimates that the population would double in 2025, the depletion of the water resources in the area will be severely affected.2
What increased the scarcity of water in the region, that the exhaustion of water has been shared by domestic pollution. In turn the domestic pollution is contributing in the deterioration of usable resources and overall decline in the quality of the available water.
In addition to the previous reasons, expanding in the industrial and agricultural sectors has added more erosion to the regional water availability. Enhanced by growing populations, many Middle Eastern states have begun to desecrate their agricultural capabilities, resulting in reduction of cultivated land on the other side.
As a result of the previous aspects, the availability of water per capita in the Middle East had become the worst in the world, "as it is represents 15% of African and 33% of Asian Levels" (World Bank Report). Although progressive agricultural techniques such as drip irrigation exist, they were only implemented by certain states due to the prohibitive costs they acquire. On the other hand current desalination efforts in the area are not able to meet the rising demands. The high energy and costs associated with sea water desalination makes such solution in appropriate for limited cash nations.
Affected by declining availability and reductions in the overall water quality, crisis zones have initiated along the major rivers in the territory which can be summarized as follows.
Developing conflicts between Syria and Turkey over the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers.
Conflict initiation at the Jordan River Basin between Israel, the Palestinian Authority and Jordan.
Initiated problems among Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over the Nile River.
Turkey - Syria conflict zone
Since 1980s relations between the two countries were lead by the water concerns. Along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, Turkey and Syria are currently forthcoming a massive argument over water resources. The issue of water sharing has brought them to the edge of the war many times.
water_politics_euphrates
Figure : Borders of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers
That led them to the signing of protocol that ensures Syria access to Euphrates water in 1987. However the Turkish expansion water project have increasingly reduced and even diminished Syrian access to Euphrates water. That was a result of a mega project done by Turkey know as the Southeast Anatolia GAP project situated at the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers system that brought full control over water by the Turkish.3 By that Turkey was able to change the flow of Euphrates in January 1990 to fill water reservoirs at the Attaturk Dam highlighted the weakness of the Syrian control over the river. As a result Syria, further complicating the issue started to support the extremist of the Kurdish Workers' Party in its battle against Turkey, a move to stop Turkey from the complete threaten of Euphrates water.
In future, the Syrian-Turkish argument over water would develop to become regional conflict. Both Iraq and Syria are situated downstream of Ankara, thus affected negatively from the Turkey's large scale water projects and efforts. At its full operation the GAP Project will reduce the water supplied to Syria by Euphrates River up to 40% and to Iraq by 80%.4 Such activity will nudge Iraq also in addition to Syria and possibly knock off balance in the region and launching a regional conflict.
Jordan - Israel - Palestinian Authority conflict zone
At the Jordan River Basin, another area of water conflict generated. Resources in that area are suffering severe overuse and pollution due to population increase that could affect negatively the interstate relation.
Between Jordan and Israel, the water resources case is reaching a conflict point. By 1994 Israel and Jordan states reached an agreement which created comprehensive guidelines to regulate the distribution of water from the Yarmouk and Jordan Rivers. From that date and conflict about water have risen again to the front of the relations between the two states.
Jordan provided only by underground sources and by the Jordan River has experienced increasing water shortage and expected to reach 250 million cubic meters by 2010 which is nearly 33% of the 2000 annual consumption.5 At the same time Israel state is currently exploiting all available water from its National water system which is consisting of West Bank Mountain Aquifer and the Coastal Aquifer and the Lake Kinneret Basin. Thus Israel was forced to resort for overexploitation of the mentioned resources to continue in expanding the industrial and agricultural schemes.6
As a result, water developed critical disagreements between the two states, that tension between Jordan and Israel is also affecting the unkind climate in the region. Both countries facing a threatening deficit in water availability brought near drought conditions. Israel divided its annual allocation of 2 billion cubic feet of water to Jordan in march 1999. Jordan in turn was unable to meet water consumption level and so declaring drought and asking for water rationing with Israel again.
Breaking down of relations between Jordan and Israel could lead to water grabs by either side. Overwhelmed by increasing population that is pressuring the water availability beyond the sustainable limits, State of Jordan placed increased value and attention to its "hydraulic imperative". On the other side the Jordan moves created an increasing fear at the Israeli community that Jordan would again grab the water resources.7Moreover Israeli part of water is reducing due to expanding population of Palestinians in Gaza and West Bank, and so the conflict on Yarmouk and Jordan Rivers would rise again.
Israel - Palestinian Authority conflict zone
Although Israel and Palestinians are historically having troubled relation, with the scarcity of water resource the trouble will be magnified. The shared reliance on the West Bank Mountain Aquifer that currently provides 80% of Palestinian water consumption and 33% of Israel's water supply has created friction in the relations between the Palestinian Authority and the Israel State.
The cooperation's effort between Palestinians and Israel has been proven to be unsuccessful. Regardless of the 1995 Interim Agreement on Gaza and West Bank that included a Water Annex to deal with water resources distribution, Israeli-Palestinian relations continued to be full of conflicts over the water concerns. The Palestinian Authority claimed to be suffering from uneven water sharing under the Israeli guidelines considered in the Water Annex that uses the water distributions of 1967 levels. For that and as a part of the peace process; a Multilateral Water Resources Group created in 1992 negotiations has also failed to move toward conformity on water sharing between the parties.
Egypt - Sudan - Ethiopia
The crisis in that region is along the Nile water distribution. Ethiopia is making forward movement toward state building and development and so it is focusing more about the water distribution issue of the Nile. On the other hand Ethiopia is objecting of the water use amount of Egypt and claiming the unfairness of the 1959 agreement over the Nile water distributions amount.8
water_politics_nile_basin
Figure : Nile River Borders
Egypt has long claimed more control over the Nile water. Located at the downstream of the Nile River that passes through long line of states with access to Nile, water inhabit central concerns in the foreign policies of Egypt. Water dependency issue in Egypt encouraged the efforts to create the capacity to trap and store water, and one of its main aspects is the Aswan High Dam during 1950s.9 Due to environmental factors, flowing of water along the Nile to Egypt has been significantly reduced, making Egypt increasingly dependent upon, and influenced by, the political climate of the region.
Tension is going to rise in the future, Egypt has retained aggressive attitude with relation to water in the face of domestic Ethiopian development efforts such as growing attempts to building more Dams at its part of the river. We have also to mention the role of Sudan that shows expansionist attitudes over Nile River. As a result of such movements, tensions along the Middle East/North Africa boundary are on the rise, as water worsen and destabilizes the weak regional status quo.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is also close to dramatic crisis over water. In Saudi Arabia's case the crisis initiates from the country's lack of rivers and permanent water bodies. Thus Saudi Arabia relies strongly on the underground water sources for its agriculture water provide and so nowadays more than 90% of Saudi Arabia's non-renewable deep- well water is demoralized.10 In addition to that the Iraq's burning of oil wells during the Gulf War polluted underground water resources already degraded by pollution from agricultural activity. All this problems created a shortage in water supply that Saudi Arabia failed to solve, despite the increases desalination attempts.
The water status in Saudi Arabia had significantly affecting the stability of the whole political regime. Though most of the oil revenues are invested in the enormous desalination efforts, however that efforts failed to effectively tackle its rising water apprehensions. As another solution to water depletion Saudi Arabia has begun to search for other water sources, in which it could create negative effects on the region. That is due to the Saudi Arabia extensive exploration into the Eastern Saudi aquifers has minimized the agriculture and water accessibility of Bahrain and Qatar. 10This situation creates political tension points over water resources in the Persian Gulf Peninsula, which can affect both Saudi Arabia and neighbors.
A Strategic Water Plans for Middle East Water
It was clearly shown that water in Middle East is depleted by growing populations, expanding birthrates and growing agricultural programs. So water will redraw the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East region being the ultimate source for life.
The scarcity of fresh water in the region will create challenges to make water obtainable at an adequate cost in places where it is most wanted and to radically develop the managing programs of existing water resources.
Such plans were adopted by the Turkish authorities that proposed to build the peace pipe line over the Middle East region to contribute in the water scarcity problem.
Turkey's Water Plan
Since the mid-1980s, Turkey has been defending the concept of Turkish water "peace pipeline" to serve both Near East countries and Gulf. The plan is to take water from two rivers, the Ceyhan and Seyhan that drain into the Mediterranean, and transfer it southward through Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia to the Gulf. The project constitute of two huge pipelines that would supply water to these countries, one to Jordanian and Syrian cities, and the other to Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Estimates showed that the project could bring drinkable water to more than 15 million people with a construction price of $20 billion. But the "peace pipeline," if it can be financed, would take at least ten years to build, and the financing itself depends upon the agreement between interrelated states, which has not been achievable for even individual projects in the past. Also the Saudis and Kuwaitis did not accept the pricing of water strategy the Turkish government proposes since the prices proposed are higher than the local desalination cost.
Middle East Water Summit
The Middle East Water Summit in Istanbul is another trial for decision makers to address the need for a complete approach to water management strategy in the Middle East. The success of such strategy will depend on the readiness of government leaders and the international community to tie water policy to larger objectives and to act positively to accomplish it.
Groundwork for mutual trust among Middle Eastern nations
Under a new strategic manner can the growing water conflicts could be normalized. The development of association system based on the use of strategic resources in a rational and equitable manner may relieve fears and facilitate interaction on the basis of mutual benefit.
Options and areas of intervention
Desalination: At present is expensive and can only partly be afforded in coastal areas in certain countries for domestic use.
Importing water from water-rich area: This can only alleviate problems and has not yet proved to be economically feasible for irrigation, in addition to its political sensitivity, illustrated by depending for this vital commodity on the willingness of other states whether the suppliers or those through which territories the pipelines pass.
Improving efficiencies: This option can also alleviate and postpone upcoming problems for few years, but it does not solve these problems. Improving effeciencies especially in the irrigated sector require investements in technologies, and know-how, training and time which can only be partly afforded by the weak economy of the country. As an illustration, statistics specify that water networks upon Occupied Territories and Jordan lose up to 55% of carried water due to seepage from old and broken piping.11 Fixing and rebuilding efforts by regional governments would therefore increase the efficiency and capacities of existing systems, dropping water waste and elevate available totals.
Progressive domestic water initiative application: Implement a strategic alliance over water by having domestic responses to water reduction. Research and development studies found out promising disciplines in water technology; possible innovations could include the launching of "water harvesting" efforts to construct micro-scale dams and aquifers to collect rainfall and storm run-off. Such initiatives could significantly increase the agricultural and potable supplies of regional states.
Implementation of the "Virtual water" concept that means instead of spending water for certain uses or products they can be imported. As a result 1000 tons of water is needed to grow 1 ton of grain which could be imported and saving on water for other applications.
The Future of Middle East Water
Faced by psychological, historical and political obstacles that have obstructed collaboration and deadlocked diplomacy, states in the region are reaching conflict over water.
The water's increasing role in the hydropolitics of the region stressed the need for a new strategies to safe this retreating resource. The incorporation of water into strategic cooperation frameworks could help the preservation and protection of water resources. This communication eventually could cover the way for the long-term security of Middle East water. In light of the complex barriers that prohibited agreement to date, such an approach represents the only method by which to turn back the tide of the new water politics of the Middle East.
Notes:
1. From Scarcity to Security: Averting a Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank Report (1996).
From Scarcity to Security: Averting a Water Crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, World Bank Report (1996). .
Martin Sherman, Water as an Impossible Impasse in the Israel-Arab Conflict, Policy Paper No. 7, Nativ Center for Policy Research (1993).
Martin Sherman, The Politics of Water in the Middle East, Macmillan Press (1999), pp. 51-53.
"Ethiopia Finds Success Despite Regional Pressures," Security Affairs, January - May 1999.
Greg Shapland, Rivers of Discord: International Water Disputes in the Middle East, St. Martin's (1997), p. 62.
Nina Sachdev and Margaret Lo, Working Paper - Air and Water Pollution, Saudi Arabia Environment Programme (1998).
Greg Shapland, Rivers of Discord: International Water Disputes in the Middle East, St. Martin's (1997), p. 151.
Natasha Beschorner, Water and Instability in the Middle East, Adelphi Paper No. 273, International Institute for Strategic Studies (1992), p. 12.
Stephan Libiszewski, Water Disputes in the Jordan Basin Region and their Role in the Resolution of the Arab-Israeli Conflict, ENCOP Occasional Paper No. 13.Center for Security Policy and Conflict Research/ Swiss Peace Foundation (1995), pp. 52-53.
A.R. Turton, Precipitation, People, Pipelines and Power: Towards a 'Virtual Water' based Political Ecology Discourse, MEWREW Occasional Paper No. 11, School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London (1999).
