Cement is one of major industries of Pakistan. Pakistan is rich in cement raw material. Currently many cement plants are operating in private sector.
Attock Cement Pakistan Limited (ACPL) is one of Pakistan's leading cement mills. ACPL is a public limited company, listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange since June 2002.
Project aims and objectives:
After a preliminary introduction of the Pakistan's cement sector and ACPL I will perform the business and financial analysis of ACPL over the period of time.
I will analyze the trend in the sales of the company over the period of time and I will also identify the factors which have an impact on the sales of the company. (BPP-P2-Corporate Reporting-Chapter No:18-Performance Reporting)
I will analyze the trend in the profitability of the company over the period of time and I will also identify the factors which have an impact on the profitability of the company. (Frank wood- Business Accounting-8th Edition-Pearson Publishers (UK)-2007)
I will analyze the trend in the liquidity and solvency of the company over the period of time and I will also identify the factors which have an impact on the liquidity and solvency of the company. (Accounting book The Basis For Business Decision by Meigs & Meigs
Research questions:
What will be the area of topic, sector and organization on which I will prepare research and analysis project?
What are the factors which have an impact of the sales trend of the company?
What are the factors which have an impact of the profitability trend of the company?
What has been the reason of the change in the liquidity and solvency position of the company over the period of time?
What are the internal strengths and weaknesses of the company and external opportunities and threats and the impact of these factors on the performance of the company?
What is the impact of political, economic, social and technological factors on ACPL over the period of time? (Shane Johnson 2005, How Not to Rap, Student Accountant)
Research Approach:
After deciding the area of topic, sector and the organization on which I will work I started gathering the information. For effective utilization of time I planned and prioritized my approach for the preparation of research and analysis project. I gathered the information from both primary and secondary sources of information. I also ensured the reliability of information. I held interview session with different persons for the preparation of research and analysis project. After gathering the information I arranged the information in a manner so that it may be easy for me to analyze the gathered information. I analyzed the information with the help of financial ratio analysis. I also used SWOT and PEST analysis for analyzing the information. With the help of these tools and techniques I reached out a conclusion on the business and financial analysis of ACPL over the period of time. I also gave some recommendation for improving the business and financial performance of ACPL.
INFORMATION GATHERING AND ACCOUNTING/ BUSINESS TECHNIQUES:
In my opinion information gathering is one of the most important parts of the preparation of research analysis as it is an interactive process. I gathered the information from both primary and secondary sources of information. I gave an equal importance to both primary and secondary sources of information while gathering information. All the sources of information turned out to be useful but secondary sources of information were more useful as it was easier to access secondary sources of information.
Sources of information:
For gathering information from primary sources I requested Mr. Babar Bashir (Chief executive) and Mr. Nawaz Abdus Sattar (Chairman Audit committee) to have an interview session with me. Both of them agreed to have an interview session with me.
The interview session with the chief executive of the company turned to be very effective. Even though the time was short, I felt that I was able to get ample information from these meetings. The management was very helpful in providing me key information about ACPL's operations.
During the process of information gathering I came to know that the published financial statement of the company are the most important source of information for performing the business and financial analysis of the company over the period of time. I obtained the copy of published financial statements of the company from the data room of Lahore Stock Exchange. Financial statements of the company were very useful for performing the financial performance analysis of the company over the period of time.
Other sources of information were also very helpful for performing the business and financial analysis of the company over the period of time. I also kept watching different television channels to keep myself up to date with the current affairs of the business environment of the country. I also studied "DAWN" and "The News" which are daily news papers of country. During this process "B-recorder" which is Pakistan first business newspaper was also useful. Internet and web sources also proved to be very useful in the information gathering process. I also kept reading ACCA's student accountant for keeping myself up to date of accounting concepts and techniques. BPP and FTC/ Kaplan text books and reference books on accounting and finance were also studied to refresh theoretical concepts of the analytical tools used in the report.
Limitations of information gathering:
While gathering the information I faced a number of limitations. One of the limitations I faced while gathering the information was that I was unable to obtain the original copies if financial reports of the company and I was provided with the photocopies of the financial statements and it was a difficult task to extract information from these copies. I was also not having the access to any internal reports other than the financial statements of the company. If I had been provided with access to the cost accounts and budgets of the company o would have been in a better position to evaluate the business and financial performance of the company over the period of time.
Arranging the interview sessions with the executive management of the company was also a difficult task for me. I tried to have an interview session with the Dr. Ghaith R. Pharaon (Chairman) but I came to know that he was outside the country. If I had been provided with the opportunity to have an interview session with him I would have been in a better position to perform the business and financial analysis of the company over the period of time.
Ethical issues that arose during information gathering:
During the interview session with the chairman of the company I was asked that I should give a positive opinion on the business and financial performance of the company over the period of time. He also asked me that I should conclude my project in positive manner on the business and financial performance of the company. I told me that the financial and business performance of the company has been very good over the period of time and I have no need to perform the calculations. I told him that as I was the student of the professional body so, I was required to adhere to the professional code of ethics of ACCA. I further told him that according to the code ethics I was required to give an independent opinion and for maintaining the professionalism I will perform an independent business and financial review of the performance of the company over the period of time.
While I was gathering information for research and analysis project I had finished the interview session with the company personnel one of my friend asked me that I should give him an opinion on the future performance of the company's share. I told my friend that as I was privy to the information of the business sand financial performance of the company so I was not in a position to give him an opinion on the performance of the company. I further told him that as I was a student of ACCA so, I was abiding by the professional code of ethics of the company and confidentiality of information was one of the codes of ethics of ACCA.
Accounting and/ or business techniques used, including a discussion of their limitations:
During this process I came to know that the ratio analysis of the company is the single most important tool for performing the financial analysis of the company over the period of time. Ratio analysis is used to evaluate relationships among financial statement items. The ratios are used to identify trends over time for one company or to compare two or more companies at one point in time. Financial statement ratio analysis focuses on three key aspects of a business: liquidity, profitability, and solvency. (Boris Popoff, T.K. Cowan. Analysis and interpretation of financial statements / 3rd ed)
Ratio analysis is useful, but analysts should be aware of the problems and make adjustments as necessary. Accounting standards offers standard ways of recognizing, measuring and presenting financial transactions. Any change in standards will affect the reporting of an enterprise and its comparison of results over a number of years. IASB Conceptual framework recommends businesses to use historical cost of accounting. Where historical cost convention is used, asset valuations in the balance sheet could be misleading. Ratios based on this information will not be very useful for decision making. (Krishna G. Palepu, Paul M. Healy Business analysis & valuation: using financial statements)
SWOT Analysis is a strategic planning method used to evaluate the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats involved in a project or in a business venture. SWOT analysis was very useful in performing the business analysis of the company over the period of time. (Dealtry, T.R. (1992). Dynamic SWOT Analysis. Dynamic SWOT Associates) But there are some limitations of this analysis which should be taken into account: SWOT analysis may tend to persuade organizations to compile lists rather than think about what is actually important in achieving objectives. SWOT analysis presents lists uncritically and without clear prioritization so that, for example, weak opportunities may appear to balance strong threats. SWOT analysis usually a simple list and not critically presented. (Armstrong. M Management Processes and Functions, 1996)
A PEST analysis is an analysis of the external microenvironment that affects all firms. P.E.S.T. is an acronym for the Political, Economic, Social, and Technological factors of the external microenvironment. Such external factors usually are beyond the firm's control and sometimes present themselves as threats. However, changes in the external environment also create new opportunities. (PESTLE analysis) But there are some limitations of this analysis which should be taken into account:
Access to quality external data sources, this can be time consuming and costly.
The pace of change makes it increasingly difficult to anticipate developments that may affect an organization in the future.
The risk of capturing too much data is that it may make it difficult to see the wood for the trees and lead to 'paralysis by analyses.
The data used in the analysis may be based on assumptions that subsequently prove to be unfounded (good and bad). (references are unidentifiable)
RESULTS, ANALYSIS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Company profile:
ACPL is a public limited company. It is listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange since June 2002. Main business of the company is manufacturing and sales of cement. ACPL is part of the Pharaon Group, which in addition to investment in cement industry has diversified stakes in Pakistan, mainly in the oil and gas sector. The Attock Cement project was conceived and the company was incorporated in 1981. (www.corporateinformation.com)
The company produces Ordinary Portland Cement. It is listed on the stock exchanges of Pakistan. (Elixir Securities, Karachi, Pakistan; Research Report - 'Players in the Cement Industry of Pakistan').
Industry Overview:
In Pakistan, there are 29 cement manufacturers that are playing a vital role in the building up the country's economy and contribution towards growth and prosperity. After 2002-03, most of the cement manufacturers expanded their operations, and increased production. This sector has invested about $1.5 billion in capacity expansion over the last six years. (All Pakistan Cement Mills Association-APCMA Data/ Statistics)
The cement manufacturers in 2007-08 added above eight million tons to the capacity and the total production was expected to exceed 45 million tons by the end of 2010. It may result in a supply glut of seven million tons in 2009 and 2010. (Business Recorder-Daily News Paper-Cement Sector, Article by Ahmed Usman-2008)
Sales and profitability Analysis:
The year 2007-08 proved to be a reasonably good year for the Company. The net sales revenue increased to record level of Rs5 billion (2006-2007: Rs4.56billion) exhibiting 9% increase over the previous year. Despite over supply situation in the local market the Company was able to achieve higher net retention (selling prices) due to better market mix. During this period of time the company was able to maintain its market share because of the high quality cement being produced by the company.
During the year-ended 2009 Company achieved an overall net sales revenue growth of 70% as compared to same period last year. During this period of time the company made the sales of Rs8.5 billion rupees. The domestic sales registered a negative growth of 1% because of higher exports made by the company, which increased by 412%. During this period of tie the reason of increase in the exports of the company was a sharp increase in the demand in Middle East and the cement industry of Middle East was unable to meet this demand.
Sales of Lucky Cement are higher than ACPL because of more local as well as export dispatches (units) but with almost similar net retention.
The Iraqi cement industry is not only under-capacity utilized but also it is not meeting the demand. Due to the increased demand, their capacity utilization increased from 76% to 95.89% over the period of time. This helped ACPL to stretch their export sales. Because of the result of this increase in the demand in the cement in Iraq there has been an increase in the cement exports made by ACPL. Over the period of time the brand name of ACPL has established in Iraq and ACPL is able to charge a premium price in this region. This increment in ACPL's profit is one of the highest in the industry preceded only by Lucky Cement. Their strategy to diversify markets and increase exports seems to be a viable strategy in times of falling domestic demand. (Business Press Pakistan)
By analyzing the gross margins of the company for the period ended 2008 there was a 35% decline in the gross margins of the company as compared to the year-ended 2007. The most notable reason of increase in the cost of production was a production constraints due to major break down in raw mill gearbox, conditioning tower and numerous incidents of damages to electric pylons; Higher input cost on account of increase in electricity charges, paper bag cost and royalty rates were also the reasons of decline in the gross margins of the company. Higher prices of coal in international markets also contributed to increase cost of production.
For the year-ended 2009 there was a 43% increase in the gross margins of the company as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 70% increase in the sales of the company as compared to the previous year. Despite of this there was only 49% increase in the cost of production of the company. During this period of time overall capacity utilization increased by 18% resulting in improved fuel and power efficiencies and higher absorption of fixed overheads which contributed positively towards gross margins.
By analyzing the trend of the operating margins of the company it can be analyzed that for the year-ended 2008 there was a sharp decline in the operating margins as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 42% decrease in the operating margins of the company. One of the most notable reasons increase in the operating expenses of the company during this period of time was that there was a 50% increase in the distribution costs of the company during this period of time. The reason of this sharp increase in the distribution costs of the company was an increase in the oil prices. Another reason of increase in the operating expenses of the company was a 21% increase in the administrative expenses of the company.
By analyzing the trend of the operating margins of the company it can be analyzed that for the year-ended 2009 there was a sharp decline in the operating margins as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 49% increase in the operating margins of the company. During this period of time there also sharp increase in the distribution cost of the company. There was a 2.5 times increase in the distribution costs of the company. There was also a 36% increase in the administrative expenses of the company during this period of time. The reason of increase in the operating margins of the company this year was that there was more than 140% increase in the gross profits of the company this year and the impact of increased cost was superseded by high gross profits.
By analyzing the trend of the net margins of the company it can be analyzed that for the year-ended 2008 there was a sharp decline in the operating margins as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 50% decrease in the net margins of the company. During this period of time there was a sharp increase of 50% in the finance cost of the company, as there was an increase in the interest rates in the country because of tight monetary policy. Reduced operating margins were also a reason of lower net margins this year.
For the year-ended 2009 there was a 100% increase in the net margins of the company. The finance costs also reduced substantially from Rs.13 per ton last year to Rs.70 per ton during the year-ended June 30, 2009 mainly because of interest rates hedging executed by the Company by entering into interest rate swap agreements with a bank. These hedging transactions allowed the company to offset effects of higher interest rates witnessed during the year 2008-2009. Because of significant increase in export sales, the effective tax rate diluted to 25% from 36% in preceding year, resulting in record profit after tax. During this period of time increased operating profits were also a reason of increased net margins.
Gross and net margins of the competitor of ACPL have historically been slightly higher; except for the year-ended 2009 when the net margins of ACPL for the first time were higher than its competitor. The reason for this was better capacity utilization and favorable energy mix.
Liquidity Analysis:
For the year-ended 2008 there was a 19% increase in the current ratio of the company as compared to the previous year. One of the reasons of increase in the liquidity of the company was 78% increase in the stores, spares and loose tools of the company because of expansion. During this period of time there was also an increase of 48% in the stocks-in-trade of the company and an increase of 100% in the trade debts of the company owing to increase in sales. Also an increase of 2.5 times in the short-term deposits and prepayments of the company was witnessed. Moreover, there was an increase of 100% in the other receivables of the company. A notable thing during this period of time was that there was a 58% decrease in the cash and balances of the company. On overall basis, there was a 15% increase in the current assets of the company during this period. On the other hand there was a 7% decline in the trade payables of the company. Accrued markup declined by 12%. On overall basis there was a 4% decrease in the current liabilities of the company during this period.
For the year-ended 2009 there was a 61% increase in the current ratio of the company as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was an increase of 49% in the stocks-in-trade of the company, an increase of 23% in the loans and advances, upsurge of 19% in the short-term deposits and prepayments and an increase of 2.5 times in the accrued interest of the company. A notable thing during this period of time was that there was a 7.8 times increase in the cash and balances of the company. On overall basis there was an 86% increase in the current assets of the company during this period because of expansion in operating activities of ACPL. On the other hand there was an 11% increase in the trade payables of the company. Accrued markup declined by 30%. On overall basis there was a 16% increase in the current liabilities of the company during this period.
Overall, the liquidity of the company seems sufficient to pay of its short-term obligations on a timely basis.
By analyzing the trend of the liquidity of one of the competitor of ACPL it can be identified that the liquidity of ACPL has been higher over the period of time. For the year-ended 2009 the current ratio of ACPL was more than double of its competitor, which depicts that the liquidity position of ACPL is strong.
Activity Ratios:
Trend of receivables days indicate that almost all of its sales are on cash basis which means that no significant credit control procedures are required to be implemented.
For the year-ended 2008 there was a decrease of 13% in the inventory turnover of the company as compared to the year-ended 2007. Likewise there was a 14% increase in the inventory days of the company. For this period of time there was a 48% increase in the inventory held by the company which depicts that the management of the company took the decision to increase the amount of inventory held by the company. Because of this decision of the management there was an increase in the inventory days of the company. For the year-ended 2009 there was no change in the inventory days of the company. Although there was a 50% increase in the amount of inventory held by the company but this increase was in line with increase in the consumption so there was no change in the inventory turnover of the company.
By analyzing the trend of the payable turnover of the company it can be seen that over the period of time the payable turnover of the company has sharply increased.
For the year-ended 2008 there was an increase of 38% in the payable turnover of the company as compared to the year-ended 2007. Likewise there was a 28% decrease in the payable days of the company. During this period of time there was a 7% decline in the payables of the company despite of 29% increase in the consumption during this period of time. This decrease in the payables days of the company depicts that the management of the company took the decision to decrease its reliance on trade creditors as a source of finance. For the year-ended 2009 there was an increase of 34% in the payable turnover of the company as compared to the year-ended 2008. Likewise there was a 25% decrease in the payable days of the company. This year there was only an 11% increase in the trade payables of the company despite of 50% increase in the consumption of the company. This again depicts that the management of the company took the decision to decrease its reliance on trade creditors as a source of finance. Although this is an interest-free finance, but its increasing trend may damage the repute and worsen the relationship with its suppliers.
By analyzing the trend of the receivable days of the company it can be seen that debtor days of ACPL are much less than its competitor but still its competitor is managing its debtors effectively as well.
For the year-ended 2009 the inventory days of ACPL and its competitor were same but during last two years the inventory days of ACPL were more as the company was holding higher inventory to hedge against inflation.
Payable days of ACPL have been much less than its competitor which depicts less reliance on trade creditors by ACPL.
Solvency Ratios:
For the year-ended 2008 there was a 6% decline in the total debt to equity ratio of the company as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 4% increase in the equity base of the company as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 2% decline in the long-term debts of the company. During this period of time there was a 3% decline in the current liabilities of the company. For the year-ended 2009 there was a 35% decline in the total debt to equity ratio of the company as compared to the previous year. During this period of time there was a 22% decline in the long-term liabilities of the company. But there was a 15% increase in the current liabilities of the company. During this period of time there was a 35% increase in the equity.
By comparing the leverage of ACPL with its competitor it can be seen that the equity base of ACPL is stronger, although competitor's gearing is decreasing over time.
Investor Ratios:
By analyzing the trend of Earnings per Share of the company it can be seen that it took a plunge in 2008 with respect to 2007 but surpassed the 2007-level in the year 2009. This is a function of profitability as the number of shares have remained constant in all the three years under review. Price earnings ratio depicts the confidence of the investor in the company and it was at its highest in 2008 as the investor was willing to pay13 times more than the earnings of the company. The decline in P/E ratio was because of stock market crisis. (CNBC). Dividend of Rs5.0 per share was declared in 2009, Rs1.5 per share in 2008 and Rs4.5 per share in 2007 shows that the company believes in contributing to the returns of its owners in the form of cash.
SWOT ANALYSIS:
Strengths;
The quality of Cement being manufactured and marketed under the brand name of (Attock Cement Pakistan Limited) Falcon Cement is of a high standard and surpasses benchmarks not only with Pakistan standards but also the British and American Standard specifications.
ACPL has very good plant and machinery. ACPL's cement plant was designed by Uzinexportimport (UEI) of Romania, all equipments, and ancillaries and steel structures were supplied by UEI and limestone crusher and packing plant was manufactured by O&K and Havor and Boecker of Germany.
Weaknesses:
The location where the cement plant of ACPL is located is a very remote area.
Opportunities:
The demand of cement outside Pakistan has been increasing rapidly, providing ACPL a good chance to explore these markets.
At present the demand for cement in the domestic market is increasing ACPL is benefiting quite well at present.
At present the demand of cement is increasing in Middle East the cement industry of Middle East is unable to meet this increasing demand. ACPL can be the main beneficiary of this increase in the demand as it has a strong brand name in Middle East already.
Threats:
The sharp increase in prices of furnace oil, and even 300% increase in the price of coal has been affecting badly to ACPL's profitability.
A price war between different market leaders can erode the profitability of ACPL.
Pest Analysis:
Political Factors:
The present situation regarding the political stability is negative in Pakistan.
The demonstrations, social unrest, suicidal attacks and terrorist's attacks on different areas as well are highest risks to the company's operations. (DAWN)
The Pakistan government has now become conscious of the environmental pollution. (PTV)
Economic Fatcors:
Pakistan has formulated sound macro-economic policies that will help the Pakistani economy to grow stronger but the recent political violence and uncertainties could slow down the growth. (MOF)
However according to the report, including all the sectors Pakistan's economic growth remained strong at 6.5 % in 2008. (SBP)
Rising inflation and depreciation in Pak Rupee.
Social Factors:
Government is taking several steps in order to educate how important it is for the people to live in the healthy environment. (MOH)
Increase in population plus Shift of population from urban areas to rural areas where there is more demand for housing, and ultimately cement.
As the GDP of the country is increasing there has been increase in the demand of housing in the country which is resulting in increase in the demand of cement. (ESP)
Technological Factor:
Thus, it is with a sense of pride that Attock Cement claims pioneer status in bringing the pre-calcinations/pre-heating dry process technology to Pakistan. ACPL's cement plant was designed by Uzinexportimport (UEI) of Romania, all equipments, and ancillaries and steel structures were supplied by UEI and limestone crusher and packing plant was manufactured by O&K and Havor and Boecker of Germany.
