One of the major factors in determining prices of U.S. farm products and food is the long-run supply price of food grains and livestock products (Jermai,1989). The variable costs of producing crops have gone up sharply in the United States along with the costs of fuel, fertilizers, herbicides, and farm machinery.
2.13.2 The Longer- Run Demand for Food
Fluctuation in the petroleum prices affected the developed countries but if some adjustment in the currency, their growth can be continued .which could lead to great demand for protein concentrates, feed grained and animal products. Developed countries are still facing the problem of constantly increased population growth against food supplies. And they also lack valuable natural resources to export in order to manage the situation (Eckstein,1978). Greater internal effort and technical assistance is required to develop more productive farming by using available land, labor and water supplies. even if this problem is tackled some policy issues are to be pondered over by the united states and other developed countries whether there should be some kind of public national or international food reserve in case of hostile price fluctuation because of the deep declines in supply.
On March 21, 1974 many proposals were suggested for reserve in the international forums and in the United States but opposed by the secretary of Agriculture Earl Buts.
(1) The return to stock holding
(2) An internationally held and managed stock program and
(3) Authority for export control and latter on he supported free market economy which is favorable during the problems of food production and price instability.
CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHOD
This study empirically examines those factors affecting the prices of the livestock. This sections aims to justify research objective to evaluate and proper method that are followed.
3.1 Method of Data Collection:
Basically this research comprises of secondary data; collected from authentic source which includes:
Federal bureau of statistics.
AERC department of Karachi University.
State Bank of Pakistan
Index mundi
An explanation based on collected data and the information used to justify this study. Reliability of this data based on filtered data comprise from authentic sources. To collect filtered data based on specification of this research.
3.2 Sampling Technique:
The statistical tool used to evaluate and interpret data into meaningful information by S.P.S.S. version 17. filtered data from excel sheet was entered in S.P.S.S. basically regression analysis used to test the degree in which independent variable per capita income has the significant impact on the livestock prices. Quadratic technique has also been run to confirm that whether inflation impact the prices of the livestock product or not. It is found that inflation has the significant impact on the livestock products.
3.3 Sample Size:
Sample size based on target population which comprises 30 years data of the variables. Therefore this thesis comprised thirty observations. There are true representatives of entire population of Pakistan economy for validity purpose filter data comprise based on the theories to find the answer of this research hypothesis.
Factors affecting farm food prices
H1: inflation has the significant impact on the livestock prices.
H2: population growth has the significant impact on the livestock prices.
H3: per capita income has the significant impact on the livestock prices.
3.4 Research Model Developed:
Hypotheses testing concern factors affecting the livestock products based on the Pakistan economy by using "regression analysis" and "quadratic analysis." To assess the impact of independent variables per capita income, population, inflation, and a dummy variable indirect taxes.
Live stock = Inflation + Per capita Income + Population Growth+ Indirect taxes (Dv)
Result concern the main effect presented in table.
3.5 Statistical Technique:
Objective of this study is to empirically identified factors affecting the livestock products and assess the impact of those factors which has a significant on the livestock products. For this purpose regression model has been used to see that which factor has the most significant impact on the prices of livestock products. In order to reconfirm the result Quadratic fit has also been used to verify the result of regression model. Regression model has been used because we want to see the relationship between dependent variable and independent variable.
CHAPTER 4
RESULTS
4.1 REGRESSION INTERPRETATION OF HYPOTHESES
H1: Inflation has the Significant Impact on the Livestock Prices.
The level of association between inflation and livestock indicates that inflation does not have the significant impact on the prices of the live stock. The coefficient of regression β is 0.071 at p<0.264 it explains only 7.1% which shows that results are insignificant. Hence, H1 rejected.
H2: Population Growth has the Significant Impact on the Livestock Prices.
The level of association between population and livestock indicates that population does not have the significant impact on the prices of the live stock. The coefficient of regression β is -0.039 at p<0.923 it explains negative 39% which shows that results are insignificant and no substantial correlation exist between dependent variable and independent variable. Hence, H2 rejected.
H3: Per Capita Income has the Significant Impact on the Livestock Prices.
The level of association between per capita income and livestock indicates that per capita income has the significant impact on the prices of the live stock. It indicates that R is 0.945 and R square is 0.894 at 0.000 which represent substantial correlation between independent and dependent variable.
The R square is 0.894 shows significant description. The coefficient of regression β is -0.945 at p<0.000. It explains 94.5% positive variation which shows that results are significant and substantial correlation exist between dependent variable and independent variable. Hence, H3 accepted.
In the regression analysis a dummy variable is also created from indirect taxes it also does not have a significant impact on the prices of the livestock product. From previous study and literature review it comes in under consideration that inflation has impacted livestock severely but regression shows that it does not have a significant impact. So for the sake of recheck another technique quadratic analysis also implies to inflation in order to confirm it.
4.2 QUADRATIC INTERPRETATION OF HYPOTHESES
H1: Inflation has the Significant Impact on the Livestock Prices.
The level of association between inflation and livestock indicates that inflation has the significant impact on the prices of the live stock. It indicates that R is 0.529 and R square is 0.280 at 0.000 which represent substantial correlation between independent and dependent variable.
The R square is 0.280 shows significant description. The coefficient of regression β is 1.594 at p<0.032 which shows that a positive variation that results are significant and substantial correlation exist between dependent variable and independent variable. Hence, H1 accepted.
CHAPTER 5
CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION
The final chapter discuses empirical evidence and research findings presented in preceding chapters. Based on develop hypotheses to identify factor impacting the livestock.
In this study key dimensions of livestock include population, per capita income, inflation and indirect taxes as a dummy variable. Study found that per capita income and inflation is a powerful explanatory variable of livestock.
Conclusion:
Aim of this study was to investigate the factor affecting the livestock product on Pakistan economy. A theoretical frame work was developed to represent the link between the livestock and the independent variable. Dimensions of livestock were first theoretically delineated then empirically validated. The dimension include: Per Capita income and inflation.
Filtered data were collected from authentic sources. The key information was used to collect data from State Bank of Pakistan, Index Mundi, and Statistical bureau of Pakistan. The main statistical technique used in descriptive research based on regression analysis and quadratic analysis.
In the area of livestock, This study attempts to explain determinants of livestock in the context of under developing economies. It also represents empirical and theoretical stats towards an explanation of livestock products. Such effort not only directed toward assimilating livestock of under developing economies but also generalizing the relevant studies mainly conducted by the economy makers. Therefore, such type of research necessary due to lack of study with this regards in the context of Pakistan study. Due to such type of effort acknowledge academically and practically in the future.
Result Discussion:
On the basis of table where result of hypothesis shown accordingly. Result on the table represent factors affecting the prices of livestock products based on the Pakistan economy. The aim was to identify determinants of livestock and their affects in the context of Pakistani Economy. Result of the analysis identify the significant association among the independent variables per capita income and inflation. Based on comprehensive literature and theoretical framework of this research, result indicates that per capita income and inflation are statistically significant factors which critically affects on the prices of livestock products of Pakistan economy.
5.3 Implications and Recommendations:
The major implication of this research two fold. Practically it focuses the attention of economy of Pakistan to continuously control the factor of inflation in their country in order to lead in the developed countries. If government wants to overcome the high prices of food they should first make proper ways to control the inflation rate of the country.
5.4 Future Research:
On the basis of limitation there are numerous opportunities for future research. Since generalized propositions cannot explain the phenomena alone; due to integrated approach need to implement to get control over inflation. These are the few potential opportunities for future research.
First and integrated method need to adopt; to understand the essence of farm food product caused by per capita income and inflation. Using this approach provide better understanding of how to control the increased price of livestock products of the underdeveloped economy like Pakistan.
