1. To begin with, both China and Pakistan have been extremely suspicious of each other. While China saw Pakistan as the most trusted ally of the US, till late 1950s Pakistan had been working hard for a 'joint defence' of South Asia against the Chinese border intrusions. Therefore, although Pakistan had recognised the People's Republic of China (PRC) in Jan 50, their formal diplomatic ties were established only on 21 May 51. [7] However, there had been no high level China-Pakistan contact until Premier Zhou En-lai met his Pakistani counterpart, Mohammed Ali Bogra, during the Afro-Asian Conference at Bandung in Apr 55.
2. At the Bandung Conference, Pakistani Prime Minister assured his Chinese counterpart that Pakistan's alliance with the West was not, in any way, directed against China. He further clarified that in cas US launched a coalition war against China, Pakistan would not be a partner to it, just as it was not a partner in the Korean War. Resultantly, Zhou stated before the political committee of the conference that he was quite satisfied by the assurances given by the Pakistani Prime Minister regarding his country's joining the Western pacts. [8] Thus started the saga of "all weather" relationship between the two countries.
3. China - Pakistan relations got a shot in the arm, with deterioration in China - India relations which resulted in a war in 1962. After this war, China finalised the border settlement with Pakistan on 02 Mar 63 which removed the only irritant in China-Pakistan ties. Relations since then have continued to move forward smoothly.
4. China proved its commitment of friendship and extended its support to Pakistan at all opportune times. During the 1965 India-Pakistan war, China was not only the major power to continue and enhance its military supplies to Pakistan; it even threatened to intervene in case India extended war to East Pakistan. Similarly, in 1971 India-Pakistan war also, China provided Pakistan the moral, political and material support through Karakoram International Highway.
5. Consequent to 1971 Indo - Pak war, in China's perception, birth of Bangladesh not only made India the most powerful country in South Asia but also nullified the unique leverage of countering India from two sides i.e. East and West Pakistan. The war was soon followed by Indo-Soviet Treaty and India's nuclear explosion of 18 May 74 which compelled China to enhance its indulgence with weakened Pakistan as Bangladesh was now friendly to India. Thus China decided to strengthen Pakistan and finally conceded to persistent Pakistani requests for assistance in building nuclear weapons and missiles which was formalised in an agreement of Sep 74. [9]
China-Pakistan Defence Co-operation
6. Defense relations between China and Pakistan constitute the most significant component of their all-round bilateral ties. Their long standing problems with India have been the most visible salient feature generating both the stimuli as well as the motivation for the ties. [10]
7. China's support to Pakistan began with supply of arms since 1966. These procurements were soon followed by China-Pakistan joint ventures, setting up of factory for production of assault rifles at Ghazipur, provision of technical and financial assistance for setting up of an Ordnance Factory near Dhaka, building of Heavy Mechanical Complex, Pakistan Ordinance Factory, Aeronautical Complex at Kamra and the Heavy Rebuild factory at Taxila for overhauling the Chinese T - 59 tanks. China has proven to be a reliable supplier of conventional military equipment for Pakistan, selling F-7 fighters, a version of the T- 96 main battle tank, and subsidising the future construction of four frigates for the Pakistan navy. More recent defence cooperation include following:
(a) Commitment by China to deliver the first small batch of JF-17 (Thunder) Aircrafts to Pakistan in 2007. However, production of the JF-17 Thunder combat aircraft started on 22 January 08 at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) at Kamra near Islamabad. The PAF expects
to receive its first eight aircraft of an initial production run of 16 within the next few months. [11]
(b) Negotiations on sale of F- 10s.
(c) Plans by Pakistan Navy to purchase Chengdu J 10 fighter aircraft.
(d) On 23 May 06 Pakistan clinched US $600 million defence deal with China, which includes construction of four F-22P frigates for the Pakistani Navy, up gradation of the Karachi dockyard and transfer of technology for indigenous production of a modern surface fleet. Under this deal, three frigates will be built in Shanghai and the fourth one at the Karachi dockyard. The first frigate is expected to be delivered to Pakistan in 2008 and the other three by 2013, along with transfer of technology. [12]
8. Gwadar Port. Gwadar Port is another major foundation which would further develop mutually beneficial relationship. This port is being constructed with Chinese assistance. The port, being located close to Strait of Hormuz, is considered as a regional corridor to Central Asian states, for western regions of China, and provide link to Persian Gulf. Pakistan had insisted that the Chinese government finance the project in exchange for docking facilities in Gwadar and Ormara and permission to set up a listening post on the Makran Coast. Accordingly, China has funded US $198 million in the total outlay of US $248 million. The strategic importance of Gwadar Port can be guaged from 15 May 01 statement of the then Pakistan's President, General Musharraf that the main objective of letting the Chinese to develop the Gwadar port was that, "as and when needed the Chinese navy would be in Gwadar to give a befitting reply to anyone." [13]
9. Nuclear Support. China has provided support to Pakistan in terms of transfer of weapon designs, setting up of enrichment plant, conduct of nuclear tests on behalf of Pakistan, imparting training and lastly supply of heavy water. In this quest, the Chinese interest is served by reinforcing the non-nuclear-nuclear balance in the subcontinent by covertly helping Pakistan to keep its options open. [14] China and Pakistan are also negotiating the purchase of 6 to 8 new nuclear power reactors in addition to the Chinese built nuclear reactor at Chasma despite a de-facto international embargo. [15] China and Pakistan, in Feb 06, signed an agreement, to "build co-operation in the peaceful application of nuclear power".
China-Pakistan Economic Co-operation
10. The components of the economic relation between the two countries are bilateral trade, mutual investments, joint ventures and aids/loans provided to each other. However, contemporary China- Pakistan economic relation is quite underdeveloped. Over the years, China's trade with Pakistan (US $ 4.26 billion in 2005) has been a fraction of its trade with other trading partners like ASEAN (US $ 120 billion in 2005), Japan (US $ 200 billion in 2005) and the US(US $ 211.63 billion in 2005). [16] Once India-China trade took-off, the percentage of Pakistani trade has further gone down.
11. Available data regarding the investment by private Chinese entrepreneurs indicate a decline from US $14.3 million in 2003-04 to US $0.4 million in 2004-05 which is a clear indication of lack of enthusiasm about investment in Pakistan. Most of the investment in Pakistan is either in the form of grants, loans and aid. Pakistan is one of the major beneficiaries of Chinese aid, loans and grants. Since 1970, it has remained one of the largest destinations for Chinese support e.g. since 1979, China disbursed US $4960 million, out of which Pakistan got US $620million, which amounts to 13 per cent of the total. [17]
Assessment of China's Intentions
12. Pakistan is very important for China as it is one of the mid-range powers of South Asia. Its geographical location puts it on the main route between China- Middle East and China-Central Asia. To maintain economic and strategic connectivity with these regions, China requires safe passage through Pakistan. This has acquired greater relevance after China became the second largest importer of oil in the world. Also, Pakistan has been able to keep Indian attention engaged on the Western front which has resulted in China remaining relatively free from any heavy pressure on its South-Western border.
13. The comparison of Chinese military and economic relationship with Pakistan clearly indicates Chinese indulgence focussed in building a militarily stronger Pakistan. In a nut shell the China's support or interest in Pakistan can be said to be driven by following factors:
(a) China's desire to tie down India to South Asia through Pakistan.
(b) Make inroads to energy rich Islamic Middle East.
(c) Ensure stability in its Muslim dominated Xinjiang region through Pakistan's influence with Islamic terror outfits.
(d) On strategic front, to open Chinese access to West Asia, Europe, Africa and to Central Asia, through Karakoram pass and Gwadar port and getting a foothold in the Indian Ocean.
Implications for India
14. It is estimated that despite dilution in support from China on the Kashmir issue, Pakistan will be unwavering in its effort to keep China in its priority list of allies as long as the dispute with India continues. Such relationship is symbiotic to both the nations as they help each other to check India's power. There are two major implications for India from security point of view:
(a) India's dispute with Pakistan ties up its troops and attention to it's North which is a boon for China. Further, India cannot be certain of China's role in case of a future conflict with Pakistan and faces a danger of two front war which will be extremely difficult to handle.
(b) Development of Gwadar Port by China has a direct bearing on the security of India's Western seaboard. This port, apart from providing China an access to Gulf region for oil trade, facilitates access to China's Navy in case of a conflict either between India-Pakistan or between India-China.
