Background :
Technology forecasting is actually as old as human existence. But, it had became a conscious activity when man started to contemplate nature where regularity of events caught their attention. The discovery of nature's regularities marked for the beginning of the forecasting activity. In the earlier times, there were lack of knowledge and this led man attribute to the natural occurrences to the supreme power of the divine for example God, Priests, and Oracles. After some times, technology forecasting began to unfold during the industrial revolution. The social had been changed and accelerated with the new scientific discoveries and technology inventions. But, at the same time, there are many forecast had been done by individuals who 'imagined' about the future technology invention. And they wrote scientific fictions by their own wild imagination. [1] For example, in 1901, Wells pretty clearly foresaw the characteristics of the automobile age, although motorcars were then only occasional oddities disturbing horses. [2]
The technology forecasting practice after that was only became more systematic in the middle of thirties of 20th century with the introduction of US's National Research Council. However, because of the eruption of 2nd World War and the inception of Cold War, technological development was strongly driven by the military for more sophisticated weapons. Later, technology forecasting began increasing recognized in the middle of 1960s with the publication of "Journal of Technological Forecasting and Social Change" in 1967. Besides that's, the emergence of numerous groups and firms engaged themselves with "the future movement", was seeking for further explore and plan for the future.1
However, the euphoric quest and confidence in technological forecasting faded in 1970s as participants were disillusioned by inaccurate predictions. There was also suspicion in US on whether technology planning is necessary and the proponents of pluralism prefer the laissez-faire approach other than technology forecasting. In 1990s, the idea of forecasting had been changed to foresight and this causes a global 'resurrection' and make various countries started to analyze their technological development systematically.1
Introduction :
Forecasting is defined as " the process in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of emerging generic technologies strategic research and likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits." [3] While the technology forecasting is the forecasting process which forces in the field of technology.
The start of modern systematic technological forecasting in the United States can be traced to the mid-thirties, but its starting point is generally recognized as being in the late fifties and early sixties. In 1962 Mr. Ralph Lenz, one of the chief planners for the U.S. Air Force, published a monograph entitled "Technological Forecasting," which has become one of the basic references in the field. [4] This report laid the foundation for most of the systematic and analytic forecasting practiced today. A particularly good discussion of the history of technological forecasting is found in Robert Ayres's Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. [5] Technology forecasting is primarily deals with the characteristics of technology, for example the level of technical performance, the speed of a military aircraft, the power in watts of a particular future engine, the accuracy or precision of a measuring instrument, the number of transistors in a chip in the year 2015. Nevertheless, the forecast does not really have to state how it could be achieved. Secondly, it is usually only deals with useful machines, procedures or techniques. . This is to exclude from the domain of technological forecasting those commodities, services or techniques intended for luxury or amusement.1
There are some output of the technology forecasting which are SWOT analysis, roadmap, Delphi, and critical technology. The technology forecasting lead to innovation as it create new thing which can give value to our society and technology forecasting is one way to help innovation process to improve and success. Besides that, there are four level of the technology forecasting, which are Holistic, Marco, Meso, and Micro. Holistic is foresight on the entire spectrum of different fields. At this level, it is generally aim to gain an overview of possible future directions for a national or regional research effort, and is typically used to coordinate for lower level of foresight exercise. The country that is using this level of technology forecasting is Thailand. Macro is the foresight which focus on a limited number of research fields. Nordic countries are using this level of technology forecasting in their energy industry. Meso is the level which foresight that focusing on a single scientific or technological field. It is usually used to determine which research area within a particular scientific and technological field have the greatest socio-economic potential. The technology forecasting exercise in Malaysia is in this level in forecasting the fuel cell technology. For the micro level, it is the foresight that focusing in identifying a specific projects by different actors. This technology forecasting level is less common in basic science, but it had became increasingly widespread as one moves along the spectrum towards applied research.1
The technology forecasting may bring benefits to different fields in helping the country to develop. As the practice of technology forecasting in Malaysia become more common, the economy position of the country in the international market also will step forward.
Demand forecasts are employed in a wide range of business operations, including inventory management, transportation, distribution, replenishment, production, maintenance and supplier collaboration. [6] Therefore, technology forecasting is important in our society. The function of this exercise is to give direction setting in determine the guidelines for science and technology policy, and to establish an agreed agenda to explore further prospects for a more limited range of future R&D options. Technology forecasting also helps to determine priorities in our society. This encompasses various activities which seeking to identify and select promising options for the future research among a wider range of possibilities. Besides that, this technology forecasting exercise is useful in anticipatory intelligence. It provides the background information in the emerging trends in science and technology. This exercise can promote a greater consensus or understanding among scientists, funding agencies and research users in identifying the opportunities of science and technology. Other than that, technology forecasting is important in disseminating knowledge and information about the emerging of modern sciences and technologies. Last but not least, technology forecasting is also important as it could be used to promote the policy decisions in line with the preference of specific stakeholders in the R&D activities.1
This technology forecasting exercise is universal and has been practiced in many countries (e.g., recently in France [7] ). Among many countries, Japan is marked by its regular practice of large-scale Delphi studies by the government over the last three decades. [8]
Malaysia has an institution that is focus in the technology forecasting, which is Malaysian Industry-Government Group For High-Technology, MIGHT. MIGHT was launched as a company limited by guarantee in 1993. It is an independent and non-profit organization that is driven by a membership drawn from both the public and private sectors. MIGHT's predominant role is to enable consensus building and coordination for Industry-Government partnership in high technology. It provides strategic technology inputs for Industry and Government, nurtures technology-based enterprises and entrepreneurship as well as prepares knowledge workers relevant to strategic and high technology industry needs. There are many achievements done by MIGHT that help the country to step forward. For example the projects that done by MIGHT in the field of social, economic, environment and etc. [9]
In this study, I propose to divide the thesis into the following chapters :
Chapter 1 : Introduction
Chapter 2 : Historical development in technology forecasting.
Chapter 3 : Some techniques and methods used in technology forecasting.
Chapter 4 : A discussion of issues in technology forecasting.
Chapter 5 : Technology forecasting in Malaysia : MIGHT as a case study.
Chapter 6 : Conclusion
Problem Statement :
Technological forecasting is a subset of futures research. Futures research is an umbrella term which encompasses "any activity that improves understanding about the future consequences of present developments and choices". [10] Since it is an exercise of forecasting the future, it is hardly to be judged and the accuracy of it had been questioned. For example "How o distinguish the validities of forecast ?" and "How to measure the accuracies of forecasting results?". However, the methods that use in technology forecasting are applies to determine the accuracy of the results. Therefore, the methods and techniques used in technology forecasting is important to be examine in this research.
The methods of technology forecasting bring significant benefit and had been applied in the many industries. For example, method of technology forecasting had been use in research and development, planning, and decision making of government and business.13 Therefore, the important issues relating to certain technique used in technology forecasting will be discuss in this study.
Malaysia have an organization that focus in technology forecasting which is the Malaysia Industry-Government Group For High Technology (MIGHT). It applied the technique of technology forecasting in Malaysia in order to develop the country in society, economy, environment, and etc. There will be a research about the application of MIGHT in Malaysia in this study.
As a conclusion, this study is mainly to discuss some important issues relating to certain technique used in technology forecasting and its application in Malaysia, MIGHT.
Research Question :
The purpose of undergo this study is designed to answer the following questions :
How is the position of technology forecasting in Malaysia?
What are the methods that are using in technology forecasting and what are the issues involved?
To what extent is the technology forecasting exercise done by MIGHT which are useful for Malaysia's science and technology planning?
Research Objectives :
The objectives of this study are to
Examine the various methods that used in technology forecasting.
Examine the problems and issues relating to the methods used in technology forecasting.
Analyze the value and effectiveness of MIGHT effort in technology forecasting.
Literature Review :
Technological forecasting is a relatively new field and is receiving increasingly more attention as a necessary planning tool for management. It is a field that represents a growth area for operations research. Conversely, the field of operations research can benefit from application of some of the methods now being used in technological forecasting. [11]
Technological forecasting includes "all efforts to project technological capabilities and to predict the invention and spread of technological innovations". [12] Martino states that, a technological forecast includes four elements: the time of the forecast or the future date when the forecast is to be realized, the technology being forecast, the characteristics of the technology or the functional capabilities of the technology, and a statement about probability. [13]
Delphi is one of the method of technology forecasting. The Delphi procedure is designed for the systematic solicitation of expert opinion. There are three characteristics which distinguish it from interpersonal group interaction: anonymity, iteration with controlled feedback, and statistical group response. While many variations of the technique have been offered since it was originally developed at the Rand Corporation in 1950's, the conventional Delphi study proceeds as follows. A questionnaire designed by a monitor team is sent to a select group of experts. After the responses are summarized, the results are sent back to the respondents who have the opportunity to re-evaluate their original answers, based upon the responses of the group. By incorporating a second and sometimes third round of questionnaires, the respondents have the opportunity to defend their original answers or change their position to agree with the majority of respondents.13 Therefore, the Delphi technique is a method which could be considered as an intuitive consensus of a group of expert opinions. However, the accuracy of this method is questioned by some authors such as Challis and Wills. [14]
A forecast can be generated by "observing a change through time in the character of something and projecting or extrapolating that change into the future" [15] . In making such a forecast, the focus is on the long-term trend, so short-term fluctuations are disregarded. Trend extrapolations require that the forecaster have an understanding of the factors which contributed to change in the past, and possess confidence in the notion that these factors will continue to influence developments in a similar fashion in the future. [16] One commonly employed approach to trend extrapolation involves the use of growth curves. Growth curves are loosely based upon the notion that the growth of a technology can be charted in the same way organic growth can be charted. For example, the growth in height and weight of an individual can be charted, and will commonly display a pattern which indicates a leveling off around early adulthood. It is believed that the growth pattern of a technology can also be plotted and charted in a similar fashion.13 However, regarding the accuracy of trend extrapolation as a forecasting technique, Schnaars admonishes forecasters to discount trend extrapolations. He notes that trends and patterns have no life of their own and are susceptible to sudden changes, and that focusing on trends alone "is often a search for the will-o'-the wisp". As an example of a misuse of trend extrapolation, he notes the actions taken by American electronics firms with regard to television manufacturing. Through the 1950s and the 1960s, television sets steadily grew larger. As American firms continued to make large, cabinet-based systems, Japanese firms began to concentrate on making portable sets. While the American firms acted on the belief that the existing trend toward larger sets would continue, the actual trend within the marketplace shifted toward a greater variability in size. [17]
Forecasting by analogy is one of the simpler and more common method to forecast the growth of a new technology. However, the accuracy of this method has been questioned on several accounts. Schnaars notes that the method has limited predictive value as "what happened before in an industry often blinds those already in the industry to developments that come from outside".17 In his study of home video forecasts, Klopfenstein found that many erroneous forecasts of videodisc players sales were based on comparison with the previous introduction of color television. He asserts that historical analogy can serve as a useful guide to forecasting a new technology, but great care must be taken in making the comparison. [18] Martino asserts that when drawing an analogy, consideration must be given to the numerous dimensions which are known to have an effect on technological change. The real challenge facing a forecaster, therefore, is the task of identifying a technological innovation which will truly serve as an accurate historical precedent upon which to base a forecast by analogy.13
Nevertheless, every forecasting methods has its own advantages and disadvantages. Therefore, most of the time it would be used in combining several of them and forecast into one. Martino notes that scenario construction, which is one of the technology forecasting method that is effective for combining forecasts and forecasting methodologies into a holistic composite.13 While Cornish describes a scenario in simple terms: "it is simply a series of events that we imagine happening in the future." In other words, scenario writing is "making up stories about the future".15 Schwarz, Svedin, and Wittrock note that the term "scenario" has numerous meanings. It can be used as a description for "a hypothetical, likely or unlikely, development or situation; a development which is described as caused to some extent by the actions and reactions of various actors: a desirable or nondesireable development or situation".16 Martino states that scenarios serve three basic purposes: 1) to display the interactions among several trends and events in order to provide a holistic picture of the future; 2) to help check the internal consistency of the set of forecasts on which they are based; and 3) to depict a future situation in a way readily understandable by the non-specialist in the subject area.13 While noting the unreliability of forecasting methods, Schnaars is a strong advocate of the use of scenarios. He notes that they do not pretend to predict the future but rather present a set of possible futures. By accounting for a range of possibilities, scenarios can be distinguished from the other methods listed above. They do not generate or present the same degree of specificity, and have even been described as an "alternative to forecasting".17
Research Methodology :
Research is the systematic process of collecting and analyzing information to increase our understanding of the phenomenon under study. It is the function of the researcher to contribute to the understanding to others. [19] Thus, the following are the research methodologies which had been used in this study :
Literature Research
It is the most important method that used in this study. By having the literature research, it could help to understand can investigated in the research. This method can give us more understand about the topic and title of this study. Besides that, it could help to collect more information about this research.
Interview
By interviewing the person in charge in the company which is related to the title of research, it can helps to gain further information about the study. During the interview session, we can give questions that we hope to know. Other than that, through this method, we can collect more datas that are useful in our study.
Research Limitation :
There are some limitations that faced when undertaking this research paper. The lists below are some of the limitations :
Difficulties in collecting information and data about technology forecasting. It is because technology forecasting still consider a new exercise in Malaysia. Therefore, the information about this practice in Malaysia might be limited compare to other countries.
The bureaucracy problem in encounter with the government agencies and institutions also one of the limitation that will face during this research. There might take a long time when waiting for the replies answer from the ministry for any interview.
This study might require current progress and current practice that are bringing up and how it give the effects in the development of the country. Therefore, there might need to spend much more time in reading and finding the latest information and data.
