China is swiftly rolling towards becoming a super power next to United States of America (USA) and is likely to supersede her in coming decade. The economic boom her impact on the new world order is transforming the China into a contemporary trade giant. However, the present economic and military growth of China and emerge as a superpower has great influence on the international relationship. The much-heralded advent of China as a global power is no longer a forecast but a reality. On issue after issue, China has become the second most important country on the planet. Consider what's happened already this past year. China has contributed more to global growth than the United States, the first time another country had done so since at least the 1930s. It also became the world's largest consumer, eclipsing the United States in four of the five basic food, energy and industrial commodities. And a few months ago China surpassed the United States to become the world's leading emitter of CO2. Whether it's trade, global warming, Darfur or North Korea, China has become the new x factor, without which no durable
solution is possible. So far Beijing has managed to balance economic growth and social stability in a highly fluid environment. Given their challenges, China's political leaders stand out for their governing skills. The regime remains a dictatorship, with a monopoly on power. [1] After many years of political, economic, and worldwide authority American dominance of the world is now in question. Other states are beginning to play a larger role in the world, and a newer world order may be emerging. China, in particular, is rapidly growing and is showing signs of joining America as one of the world's superpowers. While many say that the rise of China and the development of a bipolar international system would lead to more peaceful interstate relations, others argue that international systems are more peaceful when they are unipolar.
2. Ever since the middle of the 20th century, America has maintained the position of the world's dominating superpower. If China were to challenge American hegemony in the future, our international system may face something similar to what happened during the Cold War: a bipolar international system. Some critics of the Cold War claim that it was a time of peace, and that the bipolar international system was an effective way to facilitate conflicts throughout the world. However, while it may have seemed peaceful to some, others speak against this claim and argue that the Cold War period was not peaceful by any means. As a matter of fact, the bipolar international system during the cold war stirred many conflicts and also encouraged the world to split into two sides: democratic America, and Communist USSR. If China were to join America as a super power in the world and establish bipolarity, our international system may witness the same negative effects that the world experienced during the Cold War.2 A superpower possesses certain attributes such as a large diversified economy, major conventional military forces, nuclear weapon capability, and strategic location and so on. Does China has the prerequisites to become the next superpower and is ready for global leadership?
Facts on China
Fig (i)
2. China as the fourth largest country in the world has in addition to a large landmass, several islands in the South China Sea. The country is blessed with protection of natural physical barriers on all sides. The highest plateau, Tibet lies in the South West, the vast deserts lie in the North and oceans lie in the East and Southern directions. The country has land borders with fifteen countries extending 28,073 km out of which Indo-China border accounts for 3300 km and Sino-Russia borders cover 4300 km. The Chinese coastline extends 5774 km from the mouth of Yalu River to the Gulf of Tonkin in the South. With her central geo-strategic location and growing economic and military power, China is well poised today to exercise direct influence in Asia, South China Sea and the Central Asian Republics. For centuries China stood as a leading civilization, outpacing the rest of the world in the arts and sciences, but in the 19th and early 20th centuries, the country was beset by civil unrest, major famines, military defeats, and foreign occupation. After World War II, the Communists under MAO Zedong established an autocratic socialist system that, while ensuring China's sovereignty, imposed strict controls over everyday life and cost the lives of tens of millions of people. After 1978, MAO's successor DENG Xiaoping and other leaders focused on market-oriented economic development and by 2000 output had quadrupled. For much of the population, living standards have improved dramatically and the room for personal choice has expanded, yet political controls remain tight. China since the early 1990s has increased its global outreach and participation in international organizations.3
Demography
4. China has the highest population in the world with an 91% literacy rate. The 1.3 billion populations comprise 91.9% Han Chinese and the rest a mix of other ethnic groups. The working class (15 to 64 years) comprises 71%. Chinese immigrants constitute a majority in Singapore and are an important ethnic group in Malaysia. The large amount of money remitted to the mainland by the Chinese immigrants contributes immensely to the Chinese economy.
Political Infrastructure
5. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ruled the country since 1949 with a strong, aggressive and socialist policy. The CCP is authoritarian in structure and ideology and dominates the government and society. A strong government has provided the political stability necessary to push through various economic reforms and pursue an aggressive foreign policy in favour of her national interests. However, the brutal crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators at Tiananmen in 1989 resulted in worldwide criticism and sanctions. The likelihood of demand for democracy and political reforms in future could lead to political instability.
Economy
6. China's economy since the 1970s has changed from a closed, centrally planned system to a more market-oriented one that plays a major role in the global economy - in 2010 China became the world's largest exporter. Reforms began with the phasing out of collectivized agriculture, and expanded to include the gradual liberalization of prices, fiscal decentralization, increased autonomy for state enterprises, creation of a diversified banking system, development of stock markets, rapid growth of the private sector, and opening to foreign trade and investment. China generally has implemented reforms in a gradualist fashion. In recent years, China has renewed its support for state-owned enterprises in sectors it considers important to "economic security," explicitly looking to foster globally competitive national champions. After keeping its currency tightly linked to the US dollar for years, in July 2005 China devalued its currency by 2.1% against the US dollar and moved to an exchange rate system that references a basket of currencies. The restructuring of the economy and resulting efficiency gains have contributed to a more than tenfold increase in GDP since 1978. Measured on a purchasing power parity (PPP) basis that adjusts for price differences, China in 2010 stood as the second-largest economy in the world after the US, although in per capita terms the country is still lower middle-income. The dollar values of China's agricultural and industrial output each exceeded those of the US, although China was second to the US in the value of services it produced. The Chinese government faces numerous economic development challenges, including:-
(a) Reducing its high domestic savings rate and correspondingly low domestic demand.
(b) Sustaining adequate job growth for tens of millions of migrants and new entrants to the work force.
(c) Reducing corruption and other economic crimes.
(d) Containing environmental damage and social strife related to the economy's rapid transformation.
7. Economic development has progressed further in coastal provinces than in the interior, and approximately 200 million rural laborers and their dependents have relocated to urban areas to find work. One demographic consequence of the "one child" policy is that China is now one of the most rapidly aging countries in the world. Deterioration in the environment - notably air pollution, soil erosion, and the steady fall of the water table, especially in the north - is another long-term problem. China continues to lose arable land because of erosion and economic development. The Chinese government is seeking to add energy production capacity from sources other than coal and oil, focusing on nuclear and alternative energy development. In 2009, the global economic downturn reduced foreign demand for Chinese exports for the first time in many years, but China rebounded quickly, outperforming all other major economies in 2010 with GDP growth around 10%. The economy appears set to remain on a strong growth trajectory in 2011, lending credibility to the stimulus policies the regime rolled out during the global financial crisis.3
Armed Forces
8. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is the world's largest army. It includes all branches of the military: the Chinese ground forces, navy (including marines and naval aviation), air force, Strategic Artillery Corps (strategic missile force), People's Armed Police (PAP). In 2005 it had 2.3 million troops with 1.7 million in the army, 220,000 in the navy and 420,000 in the air force. The PLA also controls scores of military schools, academies, institutes and hospitals. It runs programs for elementary children in which they dress in riot-fighting uniforms complete with shields and helmets. Force streamlining programs under way since 1997 are combining redundant institutions and steadily reducing the military to 270,000 personnel by 2012. However, even then there would be compulsory basic training for all males reaching 18. As the size of the force decreases, the ROC intends to gradually expand the number of volunteer soldiers with the eventual goal of forming an all-volunteer career force. China's security objectives encompass three essential elements that are sovereignty, modernisation and stability. The Chinese military system with its huge military - industrial complex is the largest in Asia, though not the most modern. This is partially overcome by China's nuclear weapons and missile programs, which give it an edge in Asian strategic context. The following are salient highlights of the armed forces:-
(a) PLA. The PLA army contains 1.7 million troops 14,000 tanks, 14,500 artillery pieces, 453 helicopters. By some estimates only 10 percent to 15 percent of the PLA is ready to be deployed on combat. The PLA is regarded as the most secretive of the world's large armies. Little is known about its fight capability. It is said to be full of Chinese Communist Party spies. 4
(b) PLA-Navy. The navy has changed its role from coastal navy to blue water navy. In the past the navy was tasked mainly to stop the invasion from the sea. The Chinese Navy contains 250,000 sailors, 63 submarines, 18 destroyers and 34 frigates. The navy is relatively weak compared to the United States. It has no aircraft carriers, compared to 24 out of the world's 36 possessed by the United States, and has 263,064 tons of naval vessel compared to 2.86 million tons possessed by the United States (the world's total is 4.04 million tons) China relies on the United States Navy to keep important shipping lanes, vital for its trade, around Asia open. Chinese navy ships docked in Guam in October 2003.The Chinese navy is currently extending its reach in the Pacific, with the goal of establishing a "blue water navy" and, some say, has the aims of displacing the United States as the predominate power in the western Pacific and being able to blockade Taiwan long enough for other forces to overwhelm the island's defences. Chinese nuclear-powered submarines have been seen with satellites and reconnaissance planes cruising off of U.S. military bases in Saipan and Guam and in Japanese waters near Okinawa. 4
(c) PLA-Air Force. The Chinese Air force contains 470,000 airmen, 115 bombers, 456 jet fighters, and 400 ground attack jets, including around 200 Su-27-s and 30 Su-30s. China launched a new advanced fighter jet, the Jian-10 (J-10), in late 2006. It is almost entirely built in China with the exception of the Ukraine- and Russian-made turbo-fan engines. China has tested an even more advanced fighter, the J-11B, which is said to have stealth capabilities. It is expected to have 2,000 warplanes by 2020, including 150 fourth-generation planes equipped with sophisticated avionics. Chinese have tested an AWACS-style radar plane-the KJ-2000-and plans volume production of the plane in 2008. Based on a Russian model, the KJ-2000, it is said to be able to track 80 to 100 targets at one time. In addition, China is procuring force multipliers such as refuelling aircraft, AEW aircraft and is developing indigenous modern fighter aircraft and missiles in collaboration with Israel and Russia.4
Chinese Nuclear Programme
9. China had developed its nuclear capabilities to become an acknowledged nuclear power by the time the Non Proliferation Treaty came into force. China has been modernizing its nuclear arsenal since the mid-1980s, apparently in hopes of reducing the vulnerability of its deterrent as the U.S., Russia, and India modernize their nuclear forces. China's defense spending has been increasing rapidly - it announced a 19.47 percent increase from 2006 to 2007 - but the proportion committed to Chinese nuclear forces is unclear. While China ultimately aims to develop a robust "triad" of land-, air-, and sea-based nuclear platforms, it continues to struggle somewhat in fielding workable submarine components. China has the most active ballistic missile program in the world. Two new mobile solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles, the medium-range DF-31 and the long-range DF-31A, have recently been deployed along with the DH-10 nuclear capable cruise missile. The DF-31A is believed to have a range of over 11,000 km and the DF-31 reportedly has a range of over 7,000 km. In addition to the DF-31A, China's long-range missile arsenal also includes the DF-5A, which has been deployed since 1981. It is unclear whether China intends to keep both missiles in service or to replace the DF-5A with the newer missile. The DF-5A is also China's largest missile and would therefore be a good candidate for carrying multiple warheads. It is believed that China has the technical ability to deploy such multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) for its missiles but that it has not yet chosen to do so.
10. China's sea-based deterrent currently consists of one Xia-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). However, the sub is no longer considered operational and has apparently never actually sailed on a deterrent patrol. In addition, China's only known submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), the JL-1, was never fully operational. China's nuclear bomber force currently consists of 20 nuclear-configured Hong-6 (also called B-6) medium-range bombers (based on the Russian Tu-16 Badger) and an unknown number of similarly modified Qian-5 fighters. Due to technical problems, few of these aircraft have been deployed. According to the Chinese Military Power report, Beijing is upgrading its Hong-6 fleet to a new variation that will be capable of carrying an air-launched version of its new nuclear-capable cruise missile, the DH-10 (which also has a ground-launched version).5
SUPER POWER STATUS
13. There is no doubt that China would emerge as a military and economic superpower next only to the US by next decade. The new century unfolds, in all probability so will China's prospects unfold as a global power, not just a regional one. Consider once again China's contemporary dimensions - an enormous country with the world's largest population and military establishment. Its economy is among the world's fastest growing. It is expected to become the largest by the year 2025. Along with India, it is one of the two great civilisations of Asia. While India could rival China in the dimensions of greatness, China has had a head start. In terms of world powers, one cannot forget that an innovative America, an integrating Europe, and possibly a revitalising Russia, are also contenders. During the course of 'Peaceful rise' the Chinese influence across the world guided by a pragmatic, non-interventionist and business oriented approach, would lead to a realignment of forces thereby resulting in a multi polar world.6
NOTES AND REFERENCES
