CHAPTER IV
THE REGIONAL AND THE EXTRA REGIONAL PLAYERS AND THEIR ROLES
“Besides a common religion, Islam, foreign invaders- from Alexander the great to British in the 19th century and the Soviets in the 20th century - have united the Afghans”.
-Insight Magazine, 09 April 1990.
Brief History
Bottom of Form
Afghanistan soon proved to be a tough neighbour and sided with India on every matter which could hurt Pakistani interests using an India-Soviet favouring group. In December 1979 Russia invaded the Afghanistan with the pre-text of supporting the pro-Soviet Government. The USA weary of spreading Communism, Saudi Arabia indebted to the American cause coupled with sense of Muslim power and Pakistan worried of increasingly unstable and hostile Afghanistan combined together to exploit the Islamists waged a “Jihad” against “Soviet Invaders”. The Pashtun grievances and warlordism gave way to Taliban (literally meaning students) who rose from Kandhar and took 95% of Afghanistan under control by year 2000. Taliban were the friends of Pakistan and safeguarded the Western frontier of Pakistan against not only Indians but even Soviets[3].
Environmental Realities
(a) The continuing influx of Afghan youth trained in Pakistan's madrassas now comprises the bulk of Taliban and Al Queda cadres. They are hooked to glorified violence in the name of jihad, and imbued with robotic discipline. They are an army beyond redemption and reasoning.
(b) The silent Pashtun majority is terrorized into submission by Taliban and Al Queda.
(c) The internecine warfare between the warlords for the past decade has created an unbridgeable divide between the Pashtuns, the Tajiks, the Uzbeks, the Hazaras and the Persian speaking Shiites of Herat. The past mutual ethnic cleansing and betrayals have created visceral hatred among different tribes.
(d) The Pashtun dominated Taliban still cling to the idea of Pashtuns ruling over all Afghanistan which the minorities no longer countenance. This has led to a growing friction between ethnic groups, specifically the Pashtuns and their northern Tajik and Uzbek contemporaries.
Foreign Relations
Iran
Iran shares a long border with Afghanistan (900kilometres) and has provided shelter to roughly 1.5million Afghans. Afghanistan's relations with Iran have fluctuated over the years, with periodic disputes over the water rights of the Helmand River as the main issue of contention[5]. Initially, due to its war with Iraq, Iran was not actively involved in Afghanistan but later the Shia groups who were bitter due to meagre support from Pakistan became close to Iran. Following the Soviet invasion, Iran supported the cause of the Afghan resistance. Iran shares a cultural, linguistic affinity with northern Afghanistan's non-Pashtun elements, which suffered the most under Taliban rule. Tehran resents the atrocities regularly visited upon the Shiah Hazara minority by Sunni fanatics in Afghanistan. It's relations with Afghanistan have improved since the fall of the Taliban and has been active in Afghan reconstruction efforts, particularly in the western portion of the country[6]. Presently, Iran has adopted a more aloof posture and appears to be avoiding overt commitments - or opposition - to any single Afghan faction.
CAR
CHINA
Saudi Arabia
Russia
Pakistan
United States
“...had we looked deeper, we might have found that the root causes behind the enduring and resilient nature of the Taliban have very little to do with religion, and much to do with an ancient ethnic struggle...... we [the United States] should consider the prospect of creating a Pashtunistan which reflects the tribal boundaries. This would be a new state, carved from parts of both Afghanistan and Pakistan... This new area would be composed largely of ethnic Pashtuns, similar to what we have created in Kurdistan or Bosnia, and it would therefore very likely have the consent of the population on the ground...”[16]
-Major Michael D. Holmes
Following the Soviet invasion, the United States supported diplomatic efforts to achieve a Soviet withdrawal and contributed to the refugee program in Pakistan to assist Afghans. After the Soviet withdrawal, CIA let Pak ISI deal with the ugly mess of Afghanistan. The USA initially gave a free hand to Pak to build up the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. The US wanted the Taliban to develop as a counterweight to the Iranian regime and to check USSR's influence in the region. A favourable govt in Kabul would help USA in numerous ways. With the emergence of CARs as independent countries in 1991 and the prospects of availability of huge oil and gas reserves again brought that area to international focus. Meanwhile, the Taliban on capturing Kabul, imposed a strict Islamic code and practiced fundamentalist policies. This led to the USA gradually distancing itself from the Taliban. Post September 11, 2001 events of cosmic proportions have resulted in world focusing on Afghanistan with a renewed interest to deal with Osama Bin Laden, who was responsible for the acts of terror originating from Afghanistan.
India
(a) A pro Pak government in Afghanistan is likely to support Pakistan in case of any future Indo-Pak Conflict and would provide them necessary 'Strategic depth'.
(b) Pak has been using Taliban militia to wage a proxy war in Kashmir.
(c) Afghanistan is the hub of drug trafficking and narco-terrorism[23].
(d) A peaceful and stable Afghanistan will be in the economic interests of India as it will raise the prospects of Indo-Afghanistan trade and also provide greater access to the Central Asian markets and important centers for gas and oil.
(e) A fundamentalist Afghanistan is likely to encourage the spread of Islamic fundamentalism in the region which would affect India.
International Perspective
