This paper is a prelude to a full research proposed to the government-funded Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) intended to determine the effectiveness of current environmental practices in NSW as part of achieving the Australian government's 60% percent reduction target of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Australia's emissions in 2005 were 4.5 times higher than US, Japan and global per capita. Highest contributors by state were NSW, Queensland and Victoria mostly within the energy, transport, agriculture and land-forestry sectors. As with other states, NSW in particular has implemented mitigating and proactive environmental strategies however, some challenge are the accuracy and timeliness of emission data due to the lack in standard of measurements and definitions across sectors- government, tourism, for instance, would help determine if actions are indeed successful. The second section lists research questions arising from the primary question of the research as well as presents the main concepts of the research including standard measurement and definitions for emissions, latest emissions by the new definition, identified and new contributing sectors, measurement of current practices to lead to formulation of more successful strategies.
PART ONE
Introduction (Destination's Environmental Sustainability)
A global environmental concern, greenhouse gas emissions contributing to global warming has reached critical levels in 2005 (Jones & Preston 2006), and would double in 80 years if not controlled (Chanton 2002). Undoubtedly, continuous temperature rise will have devastating effects to ecosystems (i.e. changing seasons, melting polar ice, rising sea levels, drought) and some life forms, while from a tourism perspective, to destination sustainability.
These undeniable facts are compelling enough for CSIRO to undertake further study on the subject, on the extent of global warming and CO2 emissions and its major contributors worldwide, particularly in Australia. This paper is intended to lead a full research that would determine the latest figures on GHG emissions and measure the effectiveness of current mitigation practices of NSW destinations, governments, organisations and individuals for decision-making for future policies and projects. Apart from personal fascination, the author finds this topic interesting due to global warming's unique relevance to tourist destinations. This paper covers presentation and review of literature, concept mapping and research questions generation based on the analysis of secondary data available. Considering the scale of this subject, the focus will be NSW.
1.1 Definitions and Justifications
GHG comprises various gasses, however, since carbon emissions or CO2 represents the largest share by far, these terms will be considered synonymous. Apart from self-collated data, some relevant outsourced data will also be included in the body instead of the appendices.
2. Presentation of Literature
Globally, increasing GHGs (carbon dioxide(CO2), methane(CH4), ozone(O3)) from fossil fuel use have led to rising temperatures, melting polar ice, more violent storms, sea-level rise, flooding and drought (UN World Tourism Organization2008; UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Jones&Preston2006, Frew2006; Wilkinson 2007; Raupach 2007). Carbon concentration increased by 30% since industrial age from 280 parts-per-million of total gases to 380ppm -equivalent to 10,000 years of metamorphosis change- which could double in 80 years if uncontrolled (Chanton2002). Eight billion tonnes of GHGs were emitted in 2005 (Raupach 2007), tipping danger zone concentrations (375-550ppm) at 380ppm (UNFCCC in Jones & Preston 2006; Blasing&Smith 2006). Meanwhile, conservative estimates show the Arctic ice would melt completely by 2030 (Adam 2007), yet satellite photos suggest this will occur in 2013, believes US National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC2007).
2.1 Australian Overview
In 2006, Australia emitted 577 million tonnes (MT) (260ppm), 1.43% of the world's emissions and 4.5 times high than US, Japan and global average per capita (Raupach 2007). Major sources nationally, which the government must prioritise to address, were stationary energy(50%), agriculture(15.6%) and transport(14%) (Figure 1 & 2), while a quarter of national emissions came from Queensland(29.7%), NSW(27.8%), Victoria(20.9%) (Department of Environment and Climate Change-DECC 2008b).
(OUTSOURCED DATA)
Figure 1 & 2- National Emission by Sector (DECC 2008)
Figure 3 - National Emission by State/Territory (DECC 2008a)
De Laat and Maurelli (2006) claim, places worldwide with higher industrial activities and GHG emissions have warmer temperature. A 1°C yearly climb in Australia could dry reservoirs by 15%, increase drought, and harm Australia's "endemic biodiversity" (Pink 2008), agriculture and marine life including World Heritage site Great Barrier Reef (Jones&Preston 2006), while increasing bushfire risks. Bureau of Meteorology(BOM) suggest greater impact on eastern regions (Beeby 2008; Specht 2008; Wilkinson2007), coinciding with Institute of Marine Sciences-IMS's (2005) projection Sydney's coastline may recede 150 meters by 2100 (Frew 2006). Global warming increases sea-level through water addition, ,and "thermal expansion" (Commonwealth Science Industrial Research Organisation Marine and Atmospheric Research 2008; Wilkinson 2007). This means today's high tide level would be 2100's low tide. (Appendix A-Global Warming Scenario)
Australia's receding shorelines include Southern Ocean's Heard and Macquarie islands' campsites, Kakadu National Park's freshwater wetlands, the Gold Coast, and Bondi beach (Cooper 2007; Frew2006). Australian International Council on Monuments and Sites president Peter Phillips sees an uncertain future for natural and cultural heritage sites (in Cooper 2007) including Sydney Opera House, currently 12 feet above sea-level (Australian Association Press 2007), and the Royal Botanic Garden's waterfront observed to be three feet above sea-level during a recent visit by the author. Also, Sydney Airport's low third runway (Beeby 2008) would require elevation says Professor Short, former UoS Coastal Studies Unit director (in Horvath 2007), whilst the Road and Traffic Authority(RTA) are considering to "replace" Pits Bridge in the future (Frew 2006).
Therefore, to maintain a temperature rise below 1.2-2.3°C, Australia has to set a 550ppm stabilization level for 2070 (Jones&Preston 2006), requiring 60% emissions reduction by 2050 (DECC2008).
2.2 New South Wales Overview
Of NSW's total emissions, highest is from energy(50%), followed by transportation(22%) and agriculture(20%) (DECC 2008). Between 1990 and 2006, NSW's emissions increased in two sectors: energy emissions(20%), and transport(15%), and are higher than Queensland. Transport's figures reflect the increase in cars and average distance travelled despite fuel efficiency (CCS 2008).
Table 1 - GHG Emissions by State and Sector (Complied from DECC 2008a)
State\ Sector
Stationary Energy
%
Trans.
%
Agri
%
Land & Forestry
%
Industrial Processes
%
Waste
%
QLD
68.2
23.8%
18.5
23.4%
28
28%
42
65%
3.5
10%
3
16%
NSW
77.9
27.2%
21.9
27.7%
18
18%
10
15%
11.5
34%
5.5
31%
VIC
80.9
28.2%
19.9
25.2%
16.5
16%
-4
6%
2
6%
4
22%
WA
38.9
13.6%
8.9
11.2%
19
19%
-4
6%
6
17%
2
11%
NT
4.5
1.6%
1.4
1.8%
9
9%
1
2%
0.1
0%
0.2
1%
SA
13.8
4.8%
5.8
7.3%
8
8%
-4
6%
9
26%
3
16%
TAS
2.5
0.9%
1.8
2.3%
2.3
2%
0.2
0%
2.25
7%
0.4
2%
ACT
in NSW
0.09
1.2%
in NSW
-0.1
0%
0.13
0%
0.1
1%
Figure 3 - NSW emission by Sector (DEC 2008a) Figure 4 - QLD emission by Sector (DECC 2008a)
(Outsourced)
The key in addressing these issues is sustainability: "meet [present goals] without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs" (World Commission on Environment and Development 1987, in Leiper 2004,391). Destination sustainability encompasses economic, social, cultural, political, environmental plus managerial and resource aspects of management (Dwyer, Edwards, Mistilis, Roman & Scott. 2009; Ritchie & Crouch 2005). Sustainability is one challenge, another is sustaining sustainability. This calls for robust monitoring and evaluative systems of emission calculations and mitigation strategies (Becken & Patterson 2006), which despite worldwide use still lack standard (Forsyth, Hoque, Dwyer, Spurr, Van Ho & Pambudi 2008), and limits accurate projections and comparisons.
2.3 NSW Actions
NSW is working with the Australian government to achieve the national 60% emissions reduction target (DECC2006a), and has increased its 2007 environmental budget from $1billion to $1.2billion, employing in management of land, waste, water, air, coastal environment, with education, incentives and adaptation strategies (NSW2007). International collaborations are UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol, International Forest Carbon Initiative, IPCC while local projects include Australia's Greenhouse Friendlyâ„¢, Climate Change Adaptation Program, Carbon Pollution Reduction, Green Paper (DECC2008), NSW Greenhouse Plan, Coastal Lakes Assessment and Management tool, National Emissions Trading Taskforce, NSW Greenhouse Gas Abatement Scheme and Building Sustainability Index, and Earth Hour (DECC 2006b). NSW's Sustainable Places Program assess environmental performance in 10 categories including solid waste management, energy efficiency, and water and wastewater, air and noise pollution, whilst Cities for Climate Change adopts a five-milestone strategy: "emission forecast, reduction targets, Local Action Plan, implementation and progress monitoring and reporting" (DECC2008). Although Mandatory Renewable Energy Target program is also adopted -with City of Sydney (2008) using 100% green energy from Cozero, its effectiveness is relative to natural forces including sun exposure, wind direction and wave sizes (Baldock, Tomkins, Dalton, Skyllass-Kazacos, &Kazacos2006).
2.4 Transport
Of NSW's transportation emissions (22%), public transport represented only 2.2% (NSW RailCorp 2008). Through upcoming "regenerative breaking" capable trains, partially using green power at stations, additional energy-efficient buses, and Earth Hour and World Environment Day observance, emissions may be sustained at reasonable levels. Contrarily, while private transport represented over half of emissions, emission-reducing measures for this sector remain insufficient and inefficiently managed by the government. The focus had always been in encouraging public transport which has led to congestion on trains (Sustainable Tourism Cooperative Research Centre2009), compromising quality of travel experience.
The recent introduction in Australia of fuel-efficient hybrid cars such as Toyota Prius is a start while Australian brand Holden, and Ford's local plant should introduce their versions too.
2.5 Tourism Industry
The NSW tourism industry attracts 2.5M international and 26.1M domestic visitors annually (Tourism Industry Council NSW2008). Emissions are categorised into production-based and expenditure-based, the latter generated by local and international visitors. (Appendix B-Tourism Emissions 2003/4)
Expenditure-based Direct Tourism Emissions in 2003/4 (Complied-Forsth et.al 2008)
Direct Sources
GHG Emissions (MT)
Expenditure-based Indirect Tourism Emissions in 2003/4 (Forsth et.al 2008)
GHG Emissions (MT)
Indirect Sources
In 2003/4, the major sources of direct tourism emissions were tourism industries(10.7Mt) and private vehicles used for tourism (11.1 Mt), while major indirect sources were tourism input (18.3 Mt) and total imports(9.9 Mt).
Effective environmental strategies developed specifically for tourism can be help secure a sustainable future for Australia's tourism industries (STCRC2007). Leiper (2004, p394-397) suggests "environmentally acceptable practices, carrying capacity, rehabilitation or transforming precincts and structures, business strategy, research, regular audits, and education and training", with incentives such as discounted public transportation in travel packages (Ritchie & Crouch 2005). Dalton's study (2007) showed that most tour operators in Queensland are reluctant to embrace renewable energy sources due to "power supply limitations, reliability and economic viability," while Carter Whiley and Knight(2004) stress the lack of "functional environmental standards for tourism" to provide direction.
2.6 Airport
Globally aviation represents only 1.6% emissions which is expected to grow to 2.5 by 2050. In 2006, the Sydney Airport (carrying 31 million passengers, 43 aircrafts and 634000 tonnes of freight), represented 3% of Sydney-Wollongong-Newcastle airshed's total emissions (Sydney Airport Corporation Limited- SACL 2008). Reporting to the Department of Transport and Regional Services annually, SACL's environmental practices follow the 2009 Master Plan and the Airports (Environment Protection) Regulations 1997, Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 and Sydney Airport Environment Strategy 2005-2010. SACL intends to increase lower-emitting aircrafts carriers (A380, B787 and A35) to service Sydney, have increased public transport services to and from the city, and would incorporate a carbon calculator in their website soon (SACL 2005). Alongside performance monitoring, Green Power and Carbon Neutralising Strategies plus alliance with Aviation Industry Commitment to Climate, the airport works closely with governments, airline partners and the community to continuously improve on processes and strategies to reduce their emissions.
2.7 Accommodation
The commercial accommodation sector is major user of coal energy. Some industry environmental standards include Green Globe 21, Nature and Ecotourism Accreditation Program, ISO 14000, AAA Tourism's Green star, Earthcheck, Decipher and IPAT, which help Australian accommodations with best environmental practices. For instance, the 10,000 Green Star accommodations implement energy efficiency, waste minimisation and water management principles (AAATourism 2008). (Appendix C-AAA GS Principles)
STCRC led in Australia with over 600 members, Green Globe 21 is a global research-based organization providing advisory, training services and environmental accreditations (Bronze-engagement, Silver-process, Gold-performance) to the tourism industry (Hyde&Law 2002). (Appendix D-GG Industry Partners 2001). Its special software (CD) enables strategic decision-making through analysis of environmental and socio-economic performance (Green Building Council of Australia2008). (Appendix E-GG hotels and strategies)
Although now more widespread, these efforts industry effort is still insufficient as the maximum potential to conserve resources and use alternative energy has not been exhausted given that there are still a substantial number of accommodations that are not as green as they can be. Moreover, a standard in measurement
3. Review of Literature
3.1 Limitation
Data sources are unquestionable as they came either from government or specialised research agencies and trusted journals. However, the latest data available in 2009 range from 2003 to 2006, and the timeframe vary across sectors, thereby limiting accurate and parallel comparisons. This lack of standard in measurement and definition and recent data can increase levels of inaccuracy, affecting decision-making. Moreover, insufficient data were available on other contributing sectors (households, businesses), which can be separately categorised to aid in achieving a comprehensive research required for this type of research.
3.1 Research Methods Evaluation
The sources used are a combination of government, local and international research organisation sites, journals and online newspapers. Data from government sites (Australian government, NSW, DECC, SACL) are mostly primary data sourced from commissioned researches, statistics, longitudinal studies, delphi techniques and industry resources. Research organisations (STCRC, CSIRO, US NSID, CNS and IMS) have collated data using designed experiments, case studies, survey, experts views and relevant secondary data, among others. Meanwhile, research methods used by journals and online newspapers were mostly secondary data from research and government bodies, research papers, other available sources, plus experts' views and interviews.
Conclusion and Recommendations
In 2005, global GHG emissions reached danger levels at 380ppm while in 2006 Australia's emissions were 4.5 times higher than global per capita, as contributed by mostly NSW, Queensland and Victoria within the energy, transport and forestry sectors. This indicates a serious environmental scenario which governments and industries must jointly address. NSW, along with the rest of the country, the transport, accommodation, tourism and other industries, have implemented policies, projects, legislations and collaborations to help meet the 2050 60% national emission reduction target. Yet several issues are likely to hinder its achievement. These include the lack of consistency in definition or inclusions in emission measurements (contributors), in the period of latest figures across industries and sources, such as 2006 for government statistics and 2004 for tourism, while it is also unsoecified how much of the 60% is NSW accountable for. To be able to provide effective measures in addressing this issue, in addition to efficiently monitoring and measuring its success rate, accurate and timely data is crucial. Thus it is recommended that CSIRO conduct further research proposed in the following section.
PART TWO
4. Research Questions
What is the acceptable standard definition/s of GHG emissions in terms of emission source or type included in its measurement which any defined area or region can use?
What is the latest figure on GHG emissions in Australia and NSW based on the new or latest definition.
Who or What are the other contributors of GHG (carbon) emissions within NSW, apart from energy, transportation, industrial processes, agriculture, land and forestry, waste management, tourism activities, (i.e. residential, business, etc.)?
How much of the 60% national reduction goal by 2050 is NSW responsible for?
Are current practices and strategies of each sector (including new contributors identified from future research) in NSW sufficient and efficient in meeting its share of the 60% reduction target, within the current period?
What new solutions or strategies (for monitoring, control and outcomes) can be enforced, regardless of the results of Q5?
NSW
New standard measurement definition/factors
Latest figures on emissions according to new definition
NSW's share in the 60% reduction target by 2050
Findings
Solutions &
Strategies
Energy Transportation
Agriculture
Industrial
Land/Forestry
Waste
Other:
Residential
Business
More…
Tourism-related:
Accommodation
Travel (Air, Land Sea)
Services
Measurement
of the efficiency of current practices
Government
Concept Map
The research aims to assess the efficiency of current emission mitigating and proactive strategies and projects of NSW entities (government bodies, businesses, individuals etc.) belonging to the named and yet-to-be-identified sectors (refer to concept map) to aid in decision-making and creating of new or improved strategies.
Since data is a few years behind, it's crucial to first find the latest emissions data (possibly annually) and the percentage NSW accounts for of the national 60% reduction target (is it also 60% of it's own emission or more, as it represents a higher overall share compared to other states (i.e. Tasmania, Northern Territory and South Australia).This is intended to be achieved through a standard measuring systems or definitions (in terms of what is to be included and not) to allow comparisons and trend analysis across sectors in the future. Sectors to be examined are both the identified and new ones as residential and business sectors for instance.
The findings of the measurement will then help identify efficiency and weaknesses of current practices in addition to opportunities to create new or improve existing strategies that the government will forward to implementing bodies or entities within sectors. As implementation impacts the environment, the cycle continues.
