This report provides an analysis of the valuation of "Scottish and Newcastle PLC" (S&N). This report is set out to examine and analyze the valuation of S&N by reviewing: Delivered Shareholder Value over the last 5 years
The changes in the value of equity over the last year
Current Valuation of the equity using different Quantitative techniques such as Net Asset Value, Price/Earnings Ratio and Discounted Cash Flow. This analysis is further evaluated with practical implications
The main sources of the information are FAME (Financial Analysis Made Easy), Thompson One Banker Analytics, Reuters and S&N websites.
The data analysis shows that the company has performed well financially and is in a strong position amongst its competitors. Its increasing profits and the steady increase of its stock price are very encouraging.
Section 1 - About Scottish & Newcastle PLC
S&N is an international market leader in the brewery industry, ranking seventh by sales volume sales in the world. It is holds key positions in 15 countries across Europe, emerging markets within Asia and USA. In Europe, its primary business base, it is fourth by sales volume and second in profit. The Company has a BBB- credit rating (Standard & Poors)
The company's brands Baltika, Foster's and Kronenbourg 1664 are among Europe's top ten beer brands. In addition to these key international brands, their portfolio includes national market leaders, such as John Smith's and Strongbow in the UK, Kronenbourg Red&White in France, Sagres in Portugal, Lapin Kulta in Finland and Kingfisher in India. Amongst their speciality niche brands is Newcastle Brown Ale, primarily exported to the USA and Grimbergen, the Belgian Abbey beer. S&N works with other brewers and stakeholders to ensure brewing retains and develops its reputation as a responsible and sustainable industry.
S&N accepted an 800p per share offer for takeover at a premium of 50.7% by Carlsberg & Heineken (C&H) consortium in January. Carlsberg would gain sole ownership of Baltic Beverages and S&N's French, Greek and Chinese operations, while Heineken would take control of its British, American, Indian and other markets.
The following chart shows S&N's 26% market share by sales volume of UK beer market.
Section 2 - The Data and Its Analysis
2.1 Shareholder Return
The shareholder return over the last five years has not been consistent. The group took the decision to sell its pubs division in 2003 to return to brewing. The industry experienced a slump and is reflected in the share prices and dividends of major companies (Refer Appendix 1). Business remained flat due to lower sales to third party brands through its whole sale business Waverley TBS. S&N blames the restructuring and a ballooning of associated costs for a profits warning by PWC as a cause to a sharp fall in its share price later in 2004 inspite of dividend rise to 21p/share.
There was investor scepticism since it was still seen as a low-growth brewer, whose cash returns remained dismal. This reduced the appeal of its dividend, yielding about 5.1 per cent. (FT.com, 2005, accessed 08/03/08). The dip of almost 55% in dividends paid along with European sales hit by the sluggish economy in the region and the poor summer.
S&N shares underperformed their peers for a long. Discipline on capital expenditure later was encouraging. S&N's discount on cash earnings multiples appeared excessive and analysts recommended to play safe with the stock. S&N maintained low current tax rates and dividends improved. Post the low growth in 2005, the returns have improved for shareholders year on year. 2006 saw a further improvement due to Russia's top brewery Baltika under S&N and Carlsberg's joint control reporting a net profit increase by 42%.
2007 saw an increase in the market capitalization due to the C&H interest in S&N. The volume growth was strong in all markets, notably Russia +19%, Ukraine +39%,
Kazakhstan +46% and India +14%.The gearing (net debt/total equity) at the year-end was 63% compared to 57% in Dec 06 with strong results from BBH and its India operations. (S&N, Preliminary Report for 2007). Cider brands revenues increased by 21%. The Company boosted its profits and increased revenues by 7.9% (Source: FT.com) inspite of the smoking ban in the UK, the unprecedented poor summer weather across Europe, and the takeover bids by Carlsberg Heineken.
Total shareholder Return is calculated as:-
TSR= (Dividend per Share + (Share Price at Period End - Initial Share Price)) * 100
Initial Share Price
The dip of dividend to 13p in 2003 is the lowest in the last 5 years. The share price too has closed at the least @340p/share 45% lesser than 2004. Dividend rose sharply by 61% and share price increased by 29% in 2004. 2005 closed at 11% higher share price and has increased consistently ever since. Dividend's have been consistent at 21-22p since 2004. C&H will not be paying dividend over the 800p a share hence the TSR for 07-08 is equivalent to the change in share price. The interim dividend of 7p has not been considered since it would not give a true indication of the TSR for 2007.
Compared to SABMiller and Green King PLC's (GNK) the average TSR (refer Appendix 1) is 11.92%, lesser then SABMiller's 14.39% and GNK's 17.76 % as indicative by the BETA of 0.69 for S&N, 1.27 for SABMiller and 0.98 for GNK. S&N maintains a beta of less than 1 & has less price volatility and risk than the market @ 0.70 (Thompson One, accessed 4/3/08)
2.2 Equity Performance for the Last 12 Months
S&N has a par value of 20p per ordinary share and has 948,346,000 shares in the market as on today.
Share prices are based on the investors' assessments of the business's future (Atrill & McLaney, 2006). S&N is listed in London Stock exchange which can be considered to be a semi strong market since the market prices reflect not only past price movements, but all publicly available information. The stock market already captures existing information in the current share price.(Pike and Neale, 2006) S&N has been trading at a higher price than the FTSE350-Food and Beverages index and also against its closest competitors as per sales volumes SABMiller and Diageo, for a majority of the year (Except March and few days between mid July and Oct when it performed lower than SABMiller).
The Share prices in March were the least in the previous 12 month period, post which the company has been seeing a rise in its share prices consistently. There was a rise from 531p on 28th March to 595 on the 29th when Bridget Macaskill was to be appointed non-executive director
On April 26th, 07, the annual general meeting reported progress in all divisions, through continuing strategy of developing a portfolio of brands across markets worldwide. This saw an increase in volumes traded and increased share prices from 586p a day earlier to 625p the next.
On 9th May the company announced a 44% net sales rise in its 50% owned joint venture Baltic Beverages Holding AB (BBH) which further saw an increase in share prices.
From mid July to mid September the stock price fluctuation for S&N, SABMiller and Diageo have been almost in line with the stock index. Performance was undermined by the severe weather conditions experienced in June. Those weather conditions continued into July impacting the overall industry.
Prices had stabilized in August post the announcement of the interim results for 2007 with an interim dividend of 7p, 2.5% higher than the interim dividend for 2006. The Baltika share buyback was also announced in August 2007 where the company purchased 9,828,550 ordinary and 1,213,545 preference A-type shares. This also contributed to the price stability where the company regained its investor's confidence.
The company has been able to control operating cost over the past few years. We are of the opinion that this trend should be maintained in order to achieve and maintain the forecast profit levels. The friendly takeover bid by C&H 750p per share in October 2007, sharply raised the share price to 756p but it dipped since the bid was rejected coupled with shortage of gas for carbonation. The impact on the share price was visible since the news of a possible offer by C&H in October.
The prices started increasing in the first week of October after S&N released statements of its potential value addition to shareholders by continuing as an independent firm through BBH's continuously improving performance. The volumes of trading increased post the announcement of the takeover confirmation on January 25th and rose thereafter consistently above its closest competition and the FTSE 350 index. Share prices rose the highest during this term on Feb 20th 2008 to 807.5p.
Conclusion: From the above analysis I can imply that the company has been successful in delivering value to its shareholders by the means of dividend growth and capital gain in the form of share appreciation each year though it needs to improve its performance against players like SABMiller.
2.3 Current Valuation of Equity
We will now review the company's current valuation thru different quantitative methods.
2.3.1 Net Asset Valuation Method
(Data Source: Interim Report, Dec 07)
In this method the company is viewed as being worth the sum of the value of its net assets. With the deduction of long-term and short-term creditors from the total asset figure we arrive at the net asset value (NAV). These data are based on historical price and does not reflect the true market value of the assets.
NAV can be calculated as:
NAV = Fixed Assets + Current Assets - Current Liabilities - Long Term Debts
(FA) (CA) (CL) (LTD)
NAV is referred as 'Net Assets' in the balance sheet, which is £3162 million
Weighted average number of shares in issue= 948,346,000
NAV= £5525m + £1381m - £1584m- £2160m = £3162 million
Value per share = 3,162,000,000 / 948,346,000 = 333.42 pence
The implied value of share by NAV turns out to be £3.33 which is very less when compared to the share price of £7.42 on 31st Dec, 2007. S&N assesses fair value of its property, plant and equipment from time to time. But the book values are often historical and far from the market values in case of property, plant and equipment. As mentioned in the annual report that S&N states property, plant and equipment at cost less accumulated depreciation, NAV method of valuation does not take into view the cash from the earnings of the assets.
2.3.2 Price/Earnings Ratio.
P:E Ratio compares a firm's share price with its latest earnings (profits) per share. By this we can estimate a share's value as the amount investor or acquirer would be willing to pay for each unit of earnings. It indicates how the market rates the company's prospects. P: E ratio is a measure of the market's confidence in a particular company or industry (Pike &Neale, 2006) Using this ratio investor or acquirer can make an offer as a multiple of the earnings of the target company. S&N's 2007 P/E multiple was about 17.7, compared with Carlsberg at 24.1 and Heineken at 20.8 (www.FT.com)
Value of Equity = (Profit after Tax - Exceptional Items) x P: E ratio
PE ratio of S&N. is calculated to be 48.03 and the present equity is calculated as £7,482 million. Comparing the P: E ratio with the peers, we observe that P: E ratio is in the range of 12.45 and 48.03. The P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of a stock is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the income or profit earned by the firm per share. A higher P/E ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of income. This suggests that the market sees S&N at the lower range which is discouraging for investors against industry average of 18.39 (Reuters)
Value per share = £7482m/948.346m = 789 pence (exact market performance for the day)
Peers
Scottish & Newcastle PLC
Anheuser Busch
SABMiller
Carlsberg
Heineken
Asahi
Kirin
Current P/E ratio
48.03
16.9
12.45
19.70
21.84
20.6
26.12
Two major companies in this sector in the United Kingdom: Anheuser Busch and SABMiller, have a P/E ratio of 16.9 and 12.45 respectively. S&N's PER is higher than both. The reason for S&N's higher PER could be because investors believe that the company's earnings would be higher than all other companies.
2.3.2.1Calculation of EPS
I have considered 29th February, 2008 as the valuation date (which comes under financial year 2009 for S&N) as the date for valuation. The company year ending is on 31st December. Company does not disclose their financial statement quarterly but half yearly.
I have estimated earnings from the 1st half of year 2008 (2 months) and earnings of 10 months for the previous year 2007.
Assumptions:
Earnings for 10 months (March - December 2007) = £2490 million (1)
We know the earnings of 2007, but for the calculation I have considered 5/6th the revenues to derive a 10 month figure.
Earnings for the first 2 months of 2008 has been calculated by taking a third of the values of the interim report for 2007 = £530.67 million ------- (2)
(Data : Annual Reports, Thompson One)
30th June 05
31st Dec 05
30th June 06
31st Dec 06
30th June, 07
31st Dec 07
29th Feb, 08 (2 Months)
Mar 07 TO Dec o7
Mar 07 to Feb 08
Revenues
1573
3328
1955
3328
1592
2988
530.70
2490.00
3020.70
Operating Profit
278
300
227
278
91
230
30.36
191.74
222.10
This has been calculated by finding the growth rate (which comes out to 8.69%) based on last 7 years average.
Growth rate = 8.9 %
Profit after tax taken @ 20% less as per last 3 years trend
Net Earnings: £3020.7 Million
Earnings Per share (EPS) = Net Earnings (Profit)/ Weighted Average number of shares
EPS =£ 222.1 million / £ 948.346 million = £ .1643
P/E = Price per Share / EPS = 7.89/0.1643 = 48.03
Value of Equity = (Profit after Tax - Exceptional Items) x P: E ratio
= (155. 78) x 48.03
= £7482.45 million
2.3.3 Discounted Cash Flow:
2.3.3.1 Growth Variables
2.3.3.2 Discounted Cash Flow Statement
** Assumption: Operations not split amongst Carlsberg and Heineken after takeover.
CALCULATIONS
WACC
Workings:
At the end of period we need to estimate a value for the company. Using EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.76 (Damodaran) gives a terminal value of 9.76* 2855.04 m = £27,865.19 million for the value of S&N from the end of 31st December 2017.
Present value of terminal value = £27,865.19 * 1/ (1.0811) ^10
= £12776.25 million
S&N Enterprise value = PV to 2017 + PV of Terminal Value = £17,073.05 million
Equity Value = Enterprise Value - Debt = £14,770.05 million
Implied Share Value = Equity Value/Weighted Average shares
= 14,770.05/948,346
= £15.57
2.3.3.3Assumptions
Revenue:
I have considered the revenue for the last seven years since the negative change in revenues in 2002-3 and 2005. S&N's revenue has not consistently risen for the last 7 years. The current year revenue is up by 24.7% to £4,150 million. If we look at the growth rate in revenue year on year, we can find that revenue growth rate is in the range of -3.5% to 55%. For the calculation purpose I have taken the average of last 7 years. Earlier data has been considered since the revenues for 2005 showed a dip due to total beer and cider market volume decline of -2.1%, -3.6% in the on-trade and flat in the off-trade. I have considered 8.69% as the average revenue growth rate.
The following growth rates have been considered for other years.
2008: Normal Growth taken 8.69% (Based on performance of last 7 years Average), and smoking ban in pubs
2009: Growth rate reduced to 6% due to possible recession
2010: Normal Growth at 8.69% growth rate and expected over the subsequent performance from ASIA and Russia, and
2011: Growth of 15% due to advent of Olympics 2012, French Operations Closure
2012: 20% increase due to Olympics
2013: onwards a normal growth of 8.69% as per historical performance
Operating Expenses:
Operating Expenses (£m)
2667.00
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OE as % of Rev
64.27%
89.33%
89.17%
67.10%
104.67%
Average
82.91%
I have taken the average of operating expenses over the last five years as 82.91%. I have considered a decrease to 80% in the first two years and further 2 % decrease every 2 years till 2012 due to expected improvement in efficiencies and cost reductions. The company has been able to control operating cost over the past few years. This trend should be maintained in order to achieve and maintain the forecast profit levels.
Operating Income
Operating income I have considered proportional to sales/revenue growth of 8.95%.
Depreciation and Amortization.
Depreciation & Amortisation (£m)
101
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Depreciation as % of Rev
2.43%
3.19%
3.74%
5.35%
5.90%
Average
4.12%
Depreciation and amortization has been considered at the 5 year average of 4.12%
Taxes
The UK corporation tax of 30% has been considered for 2008. It has been announced that it will be revised to 28%, however I have taken this change effective 2009. (http://www.bytestart.co.uk/content/taxlegal/9_15/corporation-tax-rates-2008-9.shtml accessed 25/03/08)
Interest
Interest expenses (£m)
124
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Operating income
313
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Int exp as % of Op Income
39.62%
30.70%
28.33%
44.98%
45.61%
Average
37.85%
I have considered last 5 years average for Interest Expenses @ 37.85%
Capital Expenditure
Cap Exp [(Purchase- Sales) of PPE)] (£m)
174
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As % of Depreciation
172.28%
100.00%
122.13%
65.40%
70.75%
Average
106.11%
The % of capital expenditure to the Depreciation for the last five years has been in the range of 65% - 172%. I have assumed the average (106.11%) of five years of capital expenditure to depreciation.
Change in working capital
CA (£m)
1381
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CL (£m)
1584
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Working Capital (£m)
-203.00
-233.00
-102.00
-439.00
-91.00
Change in Working Capital
30.00
-131.00
337.00
-348.00
421.10
Ch in WC as % of Revenue
0.72%
-3.94%
10.34%
-7.85%
11.72%
Average
2.20%
Working capital increases as sales revenue grows, so, a bigger investment of inventory receivables will be favourable. The faster a business expands the more cash it will need for working capital and investment inflation. I have taken 2.2% as change in working capital based on last 5 years average.
2.3.3.4 Sensitivity Analysis
A : Operating expenses staying at 82% average and discount factor @ 10%
CALCULATION
With Discount rate @ 10% and operating costs constant at 82%, the share price would be 1368 pence.
B: Revenues changing @ 2 %( worst case scenario) each year and other factors remaining constant.
CALCULATIONS
Considering a worst case scenario of a growth of 2% in revenues each year and other factors remaining constant we see that the share price dips to 738 pence, closer to the actual share value of 789 on Feb 29th, 2008.
2.3.4 Reconciliation of differences in value by different methods and their reasons.
Implied value of share
NAV: 333.42 pence
P: E Ratio: 789 pence (exact market performance for the day)
DCF Method: 1913 pence
S&N has been preparing its financial statements in accordance with UK Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (UK GAAP) till 2004. Starting 2004 till December 2006, the group has prepared consolidated financial statements in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), as adopted by the EU which comprised standard and interpretations approved by International Accounting Standard Board (IASB). No deviations are visible in the annual reports and accounts.
Intangible assets are recorded at par value when acquired, where this can be measured reliably and these are capitalized at cost. Goodwill and other intangible assets are subject to annual impairment review and any impairment value charged to the income statement in the period.
S&N has stated property, plant and equipment at cost less accumulated depreciation and the depreciations is provided on straight line basis over the estimated useful life, inventories are reported at the lower of cost or net realisable value, while the cost of raw material and consumables is reported at average cost.
Income tax comprises of current and deferred tax, deferred is calculated at the enacted rates at which it is estimated the tax will be payable. The group uses the derivative financial instruments and the foreign exchange market for forward contracts, currencies options and interest rates swaps to hedge the exposures to the currencies risk.
From the above figures, it appears that the value range lies between 333.42 pence and 1913 pence. With reference to the various arguments highlighted for different approaches, the best value for the company would be the one derived from discounted cash flow approach i.e. 1913 pence. This is because it estimates company's potential based on future cash flows conferring value on any item and hence proves to be more reliable than other methods. Thompson forecast report shown below predicts that sales growth over the next three years coupled with an approximate 30% increase in EPS. NAV fails as it uses historic costs which are not the true reflection of a company. P:E ratios are better at benchmarking with peers.
NAV value is based on the Balance sheet values released at the end of the year. NAV cannot be considered since fixed assets have historical values listed in the Balance sheet. It ignores the earning ability of the assets
Also as we can see from the value obtained thorough DCF is more than 2 times the share price on 29th Feb, 08 1.e. 789 pence which is reflected by the market rate. This is so since the company has been taken over by C&H and growth rates are expected to be more consistent unlike the past. Huge potential savings are seen with closure of its inefficient business in France and hence the growth rates seem to be possible in the future. Even when growth rates are not consistent and as per the situation when the growth rates dip to 2% every year, the share price still is at 738 pence which is more realistic a figure.
In conclusion, S&N is in a strong position to carry on normal operations profitably for the foreseeable future. It has shown signs of consistent growth in profitability and stock performance in the recent years. With the forecasted continuous growth of the brewery industry in the UK over the next two years, S&N is positioned to add value to investors either through capitals or dividend payouts, though comparatively lesser to other companies like SABMiller and Anheuser Busch.
Appendix 1-Credit Score
SCOTTISH & NEWCASTLE PLC
ยท CREDIT SCORE & RATING
Current QuiScore
(Year ending 31/12/2006)
94
Secure
Previous Period's QuiScore
(Year ending 31/12/2005)
88
Secure
QuiRating (£)
999,999
The QuiScores and QuiRatings, which are developed and maintained by CRIF Decision Solutions Limited, (Source: www.standardandpoors.com accessed 10/03/2008)
Appendix 2: Calculations
TSR SABMiller PLC and Green King PLC
SAB Miller TSR (Source : Thompson One)
Year
3/3/2008
31/03/07
31/12/06
31/03/05
31/03/04
31/03/03
Share Price (pence)
1046
1115
1136
834
614
404
% of Change in Share Price
-6.2
-1.85
36.2
35.8
52
N/A
Dividend Per Share (pence)
N/A
25
24
14
17
16
% of Change in DPS
N/A
4.2
71.4
-17.6
6.25
N/A
Total Shareholder Return %
-6.2
0.36
39.09
-38.1
56.19
Average TSR: 14.39% for last 5 years
Greene King PLC TSR (Source FAME)
Year
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
Share Price (pence)
22.9
20.15
25.85
23.5
21.3
19.45
% of Change in Share Price
2.75
-5.7
2.35
2.2
1.85
Dividend Per Share (pence)
669
834.2
761.5
683.7
654.1
460.7
453.2
Total Shareholder Return %
-19.80%
12.55%
14.33%
8.48%
47.08%
6.35%
Average TSR last 5 years: 17.76%
CAPM
Cost of Debt
Cost of Debt Kd = I (1- tax rate)/ MV (ex -Int)
I = Interest
MV (ex -in) = Market value
Interest expense on borrowings = 124 million (Annual report, 2007, p.21)
Market value of Debt =[ I (1-Tax Rate)]/Kd
Market value of Debt = £ 2303 M (Reuters, 2008)
UK corporation tax rate of 30%(Annual report, 2006, pp.39)
Kd = 124(1-0.30)/MV = 3.77 %
Weighted average basic share = £948.346 million
Share price on 29th Feb, 08 = 789 pence
Market value of equity as on 29th Feb, 08 = 789 * 948.346 = £7482.45 million
Total Market Value = Market value of Equity + Market Value of Debt = 9785.45 million
Market Value of Debt = £2303 m 23.52%
Market value of Equity = £7482.45 m 76.47%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital = (Cost of Equity * Equity Weighting) + (Post Tax Cost
of Debt * Debt Weighting
= 9.44% * 76.47% + 3.77% * 23.52%
= 8.11 %
Appendix 3: Forecasts
Performance forecasts by Brokers
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